1255 A Ponce Island Dr #712 · St. Augustine, FL 32095

$129,900

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 434 sqft · Condo public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1987 $299/sqft · 21% above area Est $144k · 10% under $430/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Tennis Village, this hidden gem of a community is brimming with potential, and just minutes away from nearby Beaches. This peaceful and private complex is situated on the ICW and has water access, walking paths, and a nearby bird sanctuary. Launch your kayak and explore more of the nature just outside your front door. Great location, close to Beaches, area businesses, downtown St. Augustine, Flagler College and a short commute to Jacksonville. Would make a perfect cozy second home, Snowbird retreat, or Turn key rental. Nearby development plans should only benefit this community.

Key facts

• Kayak launch
• Nature access
• Walking paths

Tags

• WATER ACCESS
• WALKING PATHS
• BIRD SANCTUARY
• KAYAK LAUNCH
• NATURE ACCESS
• CLOSE TO AREA BUSINESSES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $93k (28.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in St. Augustine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 456 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 13% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $130k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,633 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,365
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -10.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-35,952
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-54,459
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32095

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 456
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,446 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,461/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$430
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,713

Max offer price $92,633

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3540 Datura St Unit B St. Augustine, FL	1.0	1.0	264	$1,500	$5.68	23d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $430 · $5,160/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 638-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-02-20
    listed $129,900 Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    Welcome to the Tennis Village, this hidden gem of a community is brimming with potential, and just minutes away from nearby Beaches. This peaceful and private complex is situated on the ICW and has water access, walking paths, and a nearby bird sanctuary. Launch your kayak and explore more of the nature just outside your front door. Great location, close to Beaches, area businesses, downtown St. Augustine, Flagler College and a short commute to Jacksonville. Would make a perfect cozy second home, Snowbird retreat, or Turn key rental. Nearby development plans should only benefit this community.

16. 2018-03-09
    soldstatus $84,000 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    Entered for statistical purposes only. Sold with 90% of the furnishings, unit had a remodeled and expanded kitchen and other updates.

17. 2018-03-08
    listed $84,000 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    Entered for statistical purposes only. Sold with 90% of the furnishings, unit had a remodeled and expanded kitchen and other updates.

18. 2018-03-08
    historical 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    Entered for statistical purposes only. Sold with 90% of the furnishings, unit had a remodeled and expanded kitchen and other updates.

19. 2004-01-02
    soldstatus $75,000
20. 2002-02-05
    soldstatus $64,800
21. 1998-09-09
    soldstatus $54,900
22. 1987-12-01
    soldstatus $38,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,461 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,461 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 87% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,461
• − Insurance: −$1,447
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,388
• − Management: −$1,388
• − HOA: −$5,160
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$4,545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,091
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Augustine

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,399
• Household income: $136,038
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 101.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.44%
• Current HPI: 246.0743
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.77%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+233.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $129,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2018-03-09 Sold (MLS) $84,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2018-03-08 Delisted — St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2018-03-08 Listed $84,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2004-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $64,800 Public Records
• 1998-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records
• 1987-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,461 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.