5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
3,406 sqft ·
Built 1964
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 81 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$8,995/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$6,288
Tax + insurance
−$2,060
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,889
Net cashflow
$-1,242/mo
Annual
$-14,899/yr
Cap rate
5.11%
Cash-on-cash
-4.24%
DSCR
0.81
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$335,720
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $980k (18.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $899k (25.0% below list).
It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.13M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $899k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,036 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
East Ramapo Central School District (Spring Valley) (suburban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #576 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Grandview Elementary School (math 32% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 558 students, 76% FRL); Pomona Middle School (math 6% / reading 19%, grade F, #713 of 729 statewide, top 98%, 574 students, 81% FRL); Ramapo High School (math 66% / reading 76%, grade B+, #699 of 1,100 statewide, top 64%, 1,603 students, 83% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
15 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.5% in Wesley Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29