3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,536 sqft ·
Built 1983
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,086/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,773
Tax + insurance
−$627
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$648
Net cashflow
$38/mo
Annual
$459/yr
Cap rate
6.43%
Cash-on-cash
0.48%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$94,640
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $338k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($459/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (8.7% below list).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($333k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $309k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Dennis Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 877 units permitted in Cape May County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cape May County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GHVJC56MGH4DMA
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29