31 Ft Johnson Ave

Fort Johnson, NY 12070

$110,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 182 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,131/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $126/mo
• Annual: $1,515/yr
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#855 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, cost of living A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Amsterdam City School District (town): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #546 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wilbur H Lynch Literacy Academy (math 9% / reading 37%, grade F, #646 of 729 statewide, top 89%, 817 students, 75% FRL); Amsterdam High School (math 75% / reading 82%, grade A-, #563 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,179 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 40% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 51% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Amsterdam City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $110k implies a 294% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.