31 Ft Johnson Ave · Fort Johnson, NY 12070

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,365 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1910 10,018 sqft lot Est $176k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

House on the Kayaderosseras creek, a great trout stream for fishing. House has 2-3 BRs, LR, DR, kitchen w/ pantry, and bath. Includes gas stove and refrigerator. Has electric FP included. Covered back porch w/ view of creek. 2 driveways, one w/ access to the creek. Sold 'as is'. Needs some TLC.

Key facts

• Kayaderosseras creek
• View of creek
• Trout stream

Tags

• KAYADEROSSERAS CREEK
• TROUT STREAM
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• VIEW OF CREEK
• ACCESS TO THE CREEK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on a sloped lot with views; Waterfront on Kayaderosseras Creek; Lot dimensions approximately 58 x 175

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway providing space for 4 vehicles
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: 100 amp electric service; Septic tank; Other water source
• Home design: Single-family residence; Marked as fixer condition; Wood siding
• Construction: Block foundation; Shingle/asphalt roof; Built with wood siding
• Exterior features: Rear porch and front porch; Outdoor lighting; Backyard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first level; One additional room on the second level that could be used as an office or game room
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first level
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Natural gas
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Electric fireplace; Unfinished basement; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#855 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, cost of living A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Amsterdam City School District (town): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #546 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wilbur H Lynch Literacy Academy (math 9% / reading 37%, grade F, #646 of 729 statewide, top 89%, 817 students, 75% FRL); Amsterdam High School (math 75% / reading 82%, grade A-, #563 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,179 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 40% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 51% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Amsterdam City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $110k implies a 294% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,085
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Young Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,250 (-8%)	9mo	$230,000	$184	74
20 Ft Johnson Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,560 (+14%)	6mo	$189,000	$121	63
2 Highland Ave	0.46mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,368 (+0%)	13mo	$170,000	$124	60
58 Young Ave	0.36mi	2/1.5	1,312 (-4%)	23mo	$185,000	$141	56
4 Highland Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,319 (-3%)	21mo	$170,000	$129	51
30 Lepper Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,518 (+11%)	19mo	$71,000	$47	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $44,320
• Equity at exit: $73,936

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.00×
• Total profit: $123,113
• Equity at exit: $138,417

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12070

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,131 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,739/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $972

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $157	+0% $126	+5% $95	+10% $64
Rent	-10% $37	-5% $82	+0% $126	+5% $171	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $154	base $126	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $110,000 Pending 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 171 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    status Active
18. 2026-04-27
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-13
    price $110,000
20. 2025-11-23
    listed $134,900 Active
21. 2025-10-30
    historical
22. 2025-05-16
    price $129,000
23. 2025-05-06
    listed $139,900 Active
24. 1999-07-12
    soldstatus $27,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,739 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,799 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$60/yr (+$5/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,739
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,086
• − Management: −$1,086
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$59
• After-tax cash flow: $1,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amsterdam City School District
• NCES district ID: 3602970
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $41,735
• Composite: 32.03/100
• National rank: #5824
• State rank: #546 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fort Johnson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #855
• US rank: #16505

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Johnson, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,404

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,683 people
• By 2030: 47,785 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 45,492 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 43,161 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 38,134 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 32,337 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Iranian 7% Italian 5%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.7) · D 35.6% · R 64.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -28.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.7 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+26.5 2012: R+4.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.68%
• Current HPI: 288.8231
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+294.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $110,000 Global MLS
• 2025-11-23 Listed $134,900 Global MLS
• 2025-10-30 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $129,000 Global MLS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $139,900 Global MLS
• 1999-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $27,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,739 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.