1038 Victoria Ln

Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77617

$489,999C-

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,505 sqft · Built — · Land · Active · 310 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,096/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
• Tax + insurance: −$1,486
• HOA: −$68
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$860
• Net cashflow: $-887/mo
• Annual: $-10,645/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $137,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $490k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-887 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $410k (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 310 days — a 12% lower offer ($431k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $362k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• High Island ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 1,141 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: High Island School (math 42% / reading 42%, 151 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the High Island ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 310 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.