1038 Victoria Ln · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77617

$489,999

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,505 sqft · Land · 310 Days on market

5,000 sqft lot $326/sqft · 20% below area Est $615k · 20% under $68/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Let the magic begin! Beautiful 3 bedroom/ 3 Bath Villas at Pelican Pass Home w/options: loft, quartz counters, outside shower & 4" deck extension-Amenities: Elevated Pool/Pool Deck, 2-Story Entertainment Pavilion, Ocean Observatory Deck, Kids Playground, Multiple Lounge Areas and a Prime Bolivar Peninsula location. This is the BASE PRICE for the 3 bed/3 bath floor plan offers 1,224 square feet of livable space, a usable loft option of 281 SF, ALL with a covered front porch & vaulted ceilings in the living space. Upgrade options available: Garage, Outside Shower, RV package, Quartz Kitchen Counters & Additonal Deck Space. Upgrade options are additional costs on top of the base price. Photos are a representation of what the home will looke like since the home is not built yet.This is the base price for the mid deck villa with no upgrades or furnishings. Short-term rentals allowed/ Vacation Rentals are allowed.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Pool deck
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• ELEVATED POOL
• POOL DECK
• 2 STORY ENTERTAINMENT PAVILION
• OCEAN OBSERVATORY DECK
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• VAULTED CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-887 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $410k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $362k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• High Island ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #177 of 1,141 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 310 days — a 12% lower offer ($431k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $361,632 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 310 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $614,638
• List price: $489,999
• Delta: -20.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $3,041
• Equity at exit: $220,325

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $90,794
• Equity at exit: $339,547

Cash invested: $137,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77617

• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,096 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$612 /mo · $7,350/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$860
• Net cashflow: $-887

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,219

Max offer price $361,632

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-548	-5% $-718	+0% $-887	+5% $-1,056	+10% $-1,226
Rent	-10% $-1,211	-5% $-1,049	+0% $-887	+5% $-725	+10% $-564
Rate	-1.0pp $-640	-0.5pp $-762	base $-887	+0.5pp $-1,014	+1.0pp $-1,143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,500
• Closing costs: $14,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1062 Cedar Ln Unit 1466498P Port Bolivar, TX	4.0	2.0	1130	$3,936	$3.48	3d	1	0.92mi
998 Dolly St Unit 1223259P Port Bolivar, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$2,649	$2.02	0d	1	1.13mi
994 Dolly St Unit 1223247P Port Bolivar, TX	4.0	2.0	1291	$4,359	$3.38	0d	1	1.14mi
986 Dolly St Unit 1281079P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$4,930	$3.00	0d	1	1.15mi
975 Dolly St Unit 1364178P Gilchrist, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$4,570	$2.87	0d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $489,999 Active 310 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $489,999 Active 309 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $489,999 Active 307 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $489,999 Active 306 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $489,999 Active 305 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $489,999 Active 304 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $489,999 Active 302 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $489,999 Active 301 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $489,999 Active 298 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $489,999 Active 297 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $489,999 Active 296 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $489,999 Active 295 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $489,999 Active 292 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $489,999 Active 291 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $489,999 Active 290 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $489,999 Active 289 DOM
17. 2025-08-15
    listed $489,999 Active 938-char remark

    Show marketing remark (938 chars)

    Let the magic begin! Beautiful 3 bedroom/ 3 Bath Villas at Pelican Pass Home w/options: loft, quartz counters, outside shower & 4" deck extension-Amenities: Elevated Pool/Pool Deck, 2-Story Entertainment Pavilion, Ocean Observatory Deck, Kids Playground, Multiple Lounge Areas and a Prime Bolivar Peninsula location. This is the BASE PRICE for the 3 bed/3 bath floor plan offers 1,224 square feet of livable space, a usable loft option of 281 SF, ALL with a covered front porch & vaulted ceilings in the living space. Upgrade options available: Garage, Outside Shower, RV package, Quartz Kitchen Counters & Additonal Deck Space. Upgrade options are additional costs on top of the base price. Photos are a representation of what the home will looke like since the home is not built yet.This is the base price for the mid deck villa with no upgrades or furnishings. Short-term rentals allowed/ Vacation Rentals are allowed.

18. 2023-10-06
    status Pending
19. 2023-10-06
    historical
20. 2023-06-02
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,448
• − Property taxes: −$7,350
• − Insurance: −$10,478
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,933
• − Management: −$3,933
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$14,255
• Taxable loss: −$19,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,573
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: High Island ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823160
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,447
• Composite: 50.69/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #177 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• City population: 2,957
• Population (ZIP): 38

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Serbian 18%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+653.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-15 Listed $489,999 HARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-06-02 Listed $65,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+44.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $926 · +146.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.