6414 Mud Mills Rd

Newark, NY 14513

$33,000B-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,032 sqft · Built 1825 · SingleFamily · Pending · 172 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,218/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax + insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $734/mo
• Annual: $8,808/yr
• Cap rate: 32.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.32%
• DSCR: 5.24
• 1% rule: 3.69%
• Cash to close: $9,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $33k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $734 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $33k).
• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $228 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $990 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Newark Central School District (town): math 33% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #527 of 590 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1825 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 33.0% vs local median 5.0% in Newark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1825 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.