6414 Mud Mills Rd · Newark, NY 14513

$33,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 172 Days on market

Built 1825 0.25 ac lot ↓ 18% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute Cap Cod in a country setting with 2 bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths, hardwood floors and 1st floor laundry. Newer metal roof, boiler and storm windows. Municipal water all close to the Village of Newark. Come take a look today.

Key facts

• First floor laundry
• Municipal water
• Newer metal roof

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• MUNICIPAL WATER
• STORM WINDOWS
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $33k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $734 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $33k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.0% vs local median 5.0% in Newark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Newark Central School District (town): math 33% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #527 of 590 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $228 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $990 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1825 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1825 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.32%
• DSCR: 5.24
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,016
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1759 Welcher Rd	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+7%)	7mo	$169,000	$154	72
1598 Welcher Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+8%)	4mo	$210,000	$188	46
1698 State Route 88 N	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+8%)	8mo	$240,000	$214	42
1991 Vanauken Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-2%)	22mo	$249,900	$248	41
2110 State Route 88 N	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,180 (+14%)	20mo	$164,000	$139	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 96.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.48×
• Total profit: $41,418
• Equity at exit: $4,920

10-year hold

• IRR: 98.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.43×
• Total profit: $96,334
• Equity at exit: $2,853

Cash invested: $9,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14513

• Home prices YoY: -16.7%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$41 /mo · $495/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $289

Max offer price $33,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $757	-5% $745	+0% $734	+5% $723	+10% $711
Rent	-10% $638	-5% $686	+0% $734	+5% $782	+10% $830
Rate	-1.0pp $751	-0.5pp $742	base $734	+0.5pp $725	+1.0pp $717

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,250
• Closing costs: $990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $33,000
3. 2025-10-06
   listed $41,000 Active
4. 2023-07-27
   historical
5. 2023-07-25
   price $72,000
6. 2023-07-17
   listed $74,900 Active
7. 2022-08-12
   soldstatus $59,000
8. 2022-08-11
   soldstatus $59,000 Closed Sale or Rented 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   Cute Cap Cod in a country setting with 2 bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths, hardwood floors and 1st floor laundry. Newer metal roof, boiler and storm windows. Municipal water all close to the Village of Newark. Come take a look today.

9. 2022-04-26
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 222-char remark

   Show marketing remark (222 chars)

   Cute Cap Cod in a country setting with 2 bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths, hardwood floors and 1st floor laundry. Newer metal roof, boiler and storm windows. Municipal water all close to the Village of Newark. Come take a look today.

10. 2022-04-18
    listed $74,900 Active 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Cute Cap Cod in a country setting with 2 bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths, hardwood floors and 1st floor laundry. Newer metal roof, boiler and storm windows. Municipal water all close to the Village of Newark. Come take a look today.

11. 2021-12-14
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
12. 2021-12-11
    historical
13. 2021-11-15
    price $74,900
14. 2021-10-27
    listed $79,900 Active
15. 2004-12-21
    soldstatus $44,500
16. 1999-09-24
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 33% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,849
• − Property taxes: −$495
• − Insurance: −$165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,169
• − Management: −$1,169
• − Depreciation: −$960
• Taxable income: $8,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,114
• After-tax cash flow: $6,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newark Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620640
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $44,966
• Composite: 33.55/100
• National rank: #5428
• State rank: #527 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newark

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #6978

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,501

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 13% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.98%
• Current HPI: 253.627
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-17.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $33,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $41,000 UNYREIS
• 2023-07-27 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2023-07-25 Price Changed $72,000 UNYREIS
• 2023-07-17 Listed $74,900 UNYREIS
• 2022-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-11 Sold (MLS) $59,000 UNYREIS
• 2022-04-26 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2022-04-18 Listed $74,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-12-14 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2021-12-11 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2021-11-15 Price Changed $74,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-10-27 Listed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2004-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records
• 1999-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,217 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.