11-2443 Makoa Rd

Fern Forest, HI 96785

$198,880F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 320 sqft · Built 1991 · Other · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,234/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,043
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-286/mo
• Annual: $-3,429/yr
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.16%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $55,686

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (37.9% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#147 in HI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, housing D+.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary School (math 9% / reading 16%, grade F, #175 of 183 statewide, top 96%, 493 students, 78% FRL); Keaau Middle School (math 11% / reading 31%, grade F, #37 of 42 statewide, top 88%, 749 students, 76% FRL); Keaau High School (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #34 of 43 statewide, top 79%, 1,046 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 39% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hawaii Department Of Education average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 159 active listings in the ZIP; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 374% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.