11-2443 Makoa Rd · Fern Forest, HI 96785

$198,880

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 320 sqft · Other public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1991 3.00 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new homestead! Make your dreams come alive on grid or off on 3 acres of native rainforest. Lot 60 is one of two side by sides (see MLS 730179) on Makoa Rd. in Fern Forest. Private, yet easily connected to Volcano Hwy. and all BIg Island adventures and activities. High speed internet offers a great opportunity for remote work--best of both worlds! Check with Hawaiiantel and others for details. Another plus: catchment water system provides water FREE from the sky! Lot 59 is in Lava zone 3, Flood zone X (best it gets on island), and SSPP grid hook up fee is $2844. Elevation is approx 2340 ft. in front of lot.

Key facts

• Two dwellings
• Private retreat
• Lush native greenery

Tags

• TWO DWELLINGS
• 3 ACRES
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• LUSH NATIVE GREENERY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Not used as a short-term vacation rental

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Water supplied by catchment; Cesspool sewer system; No scheduled solid waste disposal
• Exterior features: Fee simple land ownership; Located in Lava Zone 3; Zoned A-3A; Graded road access; Annual road maintenance fee (approx. $200)

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (2 full)
• Interior features: Carpet flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (37.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#147 in HI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, housing D+.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 374% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $123,408 (37.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.16%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,829
• Equity at exit: $64,388

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,822
• Equity at exit: $82,916

Cash invested: $55,686 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96785

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,043
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,618/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $148,400

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-173	-5% $-229	+0% $-286	+5% $-342	+10% $-398
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-335	+0% $-286	+5% $-237	+10% $-188
Rate	-1.0pp $-186	-0.5pp $-235	base $-286	+0.5pp $-337	+1.0pp $-390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,720
• Closing costs: $5,966
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $198,880 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,880 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,880 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,880 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,880 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,880 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $198,880 Active 32 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,140
• − Property taxes: −$1,618
• − Insurance: −$994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,185
• − Management: −$1,185
• − Depreciation: −$5,786
• Taxable loss: −$7,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,704
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,725/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Fern Forest

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #25444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fern Forest, HI
• Population (ZIP): 4,224

Population outlook (Hawaii County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,733 people
• By 2030: 232,156 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 252,486 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 272,703 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 332,113 · +50.5%
• By 2100: 398,342 · +80.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Two or more races 39% Hispanic / Latino 16% Pacific Islander 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Russian 9% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawaii

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.3) · D 63.0% · R 34.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.7pp · 2024: 28.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.3 2020: D+36.2 2016: D+36.6 2012: D+51.3 2008: D+53.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Current HPI: 185.9474
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $198,880 HI Information Service
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $215,000 HI Information Service
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $198,880 HI Information Service
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $215,000 HI Information Service
• 2026-05-10 Listed $42,000 HI Information Service
• 2026-05-01 Listed $225,000 HI Information Service

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,618 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.