4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,052 sqft ·
Built 1945
· Other
· Active
· 62 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,624/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$784
Tax + insurance
−$273
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$341
Net cashflow
$226/mo
Annual
$2,713/yr
Cap rate
8.11%
Cash-on-cash
6.48%
DSCR
1.29
1% rule
1.09%
Cash to close
$41,860
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
Sherman ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #546 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Percy W Neblett El (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 559 students, 70% FRL); Piner Middle (math 31% / reading 41%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 818 students, 75% FRL); Sherman H S (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,155 students, 70% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 492 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.9% in Denison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GK4C070N9B0GBV
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29