203 E Henderson St

Itasca, TX 76055

$220,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,441 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,705/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-130/mo
• Annual: $-1,558/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (22.5% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $170k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#832 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Itasca ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #636 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Itasca El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 295 students, 74% FRL); Itasca Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 164 students, 62% FRL); Itasca H S (math 15% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,106 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 192 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.