45053 R Jones Rd

Callahan, FL 32011

$269,900D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Built 2023 · Manufactured · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,560/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$463
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-646/mo
• Annual: $-7,755/yr
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.27%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-646 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (42.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (42.2% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (42.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#408 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Callahan Elementary School (658 students, 51% FRL); Callahan Middle School (math 79% / reading 65%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 705 students, 46% FRL); West Nassau County High School (math 39% / reading 55%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 974 students, 40% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.6% in Callahan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.