105 Billy Bones Dr

South Toledo Bend, TX 71429

$65,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Active · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,220/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $577/mo
• Annual: $6,919/yr
• Cap rate: 16.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.02%
• DSCR: 2.69
• 1% rule: 1.88%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $577 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,431 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Sabine Parish (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 98 in LA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 49 units permitted in Sabine Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sabine County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 2.4% in South Toledo Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.