105 Billy Bones Dr · South Toledo Bend, TX 71429

$65,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 136 Days on market

Built 2015 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the Pirates Cove Subdivision, this one-bedroom, one-bath camp is a great find near the waters of Toledo Bend. Designed for lake life and outdoor enjoyment, this property offers easy access to some of the best fishing, boating, and camping the area has to offer. Whether you're heading out on the water at sunrise or relaxing after a day outdoors, this camp is the perfect place to enjoy everything Toledo Bend is known for.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Listed 135 days

Tags

• PIRATES COVE SUBDIVISION
• EASY ACCESS TO FISHING
• EASY ACCESS TO BOATING
• EASY ACCESS TO CAMPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $577 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 2.4% in South Toledo Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,431 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Sabine Parish (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 98 in LA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 49 units permitted in Sabine Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sabine County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.02%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $26,169
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $69,993
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71429

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $229/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $490

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $613	-5% $595	+0% $577	+5% $558	+10% $540
Rent	-10% $480	-5% $528	+0% $577	+5% $625	+10% $673
Rate	-1.0pp $609	-0.5pp $593	base $577	+0.5pp $560	+1.0pp $543

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 116 DOM
17. 2026-02-03
    listed $65,000 Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    Located in the Pirates Cove Subdivision, this one-bedroom, one-bath camp is a great find near the waters of Toledo Bend. Designed for lake life and outdoor enjoyment, this property offers easy access to some of the best fishing, boating, and camping the area has to offer. Whether you're heading out on the water at sunrise or relaxing after a day outdoors, this camp is the perfect place to enjoy everything Toledo Bend is known for.

18. 2026-02-02
    listed $65,000 Active 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    Located in the Pirates Cove Subdivision, this one-bedroom, one-bath camp is a great find near the waters of Toledo Bend. Designed for lake life and outdoor enjoyment, this property offers easy access to some of the best fishing, boating, and camping the area has to offer. Whether you’re heading out on the water at sunrise or relaxing after a day outdoors, this camp is the perfect place to enjoy everything Toledo Bend is known for.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $229 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$960/yr (+$80/mo · 418.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$229
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,171
• − Management: −$1,171
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $6,209
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,490
• After-tax cash flow: $5,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sabine Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201380
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -35.00%
• Median HH income: $37,017
• Composite: 27.41/100
• National rank: #6970
• State rank: #40 of 98 in LA

Livability — South Toledo Bend

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1431
• US rank: #24460

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,101

Population outlook (Sabine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,820 people
• By 2030: 23,505 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 22,885 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 22,235 · -6.7%
• By 2075: 20,257 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 17,348 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sabine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.1) · D 14.6% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.5pp toward R · 2008: -51.6pp · 2024: -70.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.1 2020: R+66.5 2016: R+63.1 2012: R+55.1 2008: R+51.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.68%
• Current HPI: 146.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Listed $65,000 GFPAR
• 2026-02-02 Listed $65,000 SWLAR

Property tax history

+25.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $229 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.