6131 E 28th St

Tucson, AZ 85711

$235,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,482 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,775/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-58/mo
• Annual: $-699/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-699/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (24.5% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Wheeler Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #600 of 1,109 statewide, top 56%, 416 students, 73% FRL); Gridley Middle School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 530 students, 58% FRL); Palo Verde High Magnet School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 691 students, 65% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 12 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $169k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?