Residence 2612 Plan

Sacramento, CA 95835

$658,990F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,612 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 417 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,903/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,264
• Tax + insurance: −$1,480
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$820
• Net cashflow: $-2,661/mo
• Annual: $-31,936/yr
• Cap rate: 2.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.37%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $227,669

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $659k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $428k (35.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $390k (40.8% below list).
• It's been on market 417 days — a 12% lower offer ($580k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $390k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $80k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $75k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Regency Park Elementary (723 students, 69% FRL); Norwood Junior High (406 students, 83% FRL); Rio Linda High (1,596 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools at 78% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$129k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 417 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?