Residence 2612 Plan · Sacramento, CA 95835

$658,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,612 sqft · SingleFamily · 417 Days on market

↓ 11% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home features an inviting open-concept floorplan on the first level that blends the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. A nearby California Room offers simple outdoor living, and a convenient bedroom is located at the front of the home. On the second floor, a versatile loft is easily accessible from two bedrooms and the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom.

Key facts

• California room
• Versatile loft
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• CALIFORNIA ROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT
• LUXURIOUS OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $658,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $813,102.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $659k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $428k (35.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $390k (40.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $390k (40.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Regency Park Elementary (723 students, 69% FRL); Norwood Junior High (406 students, 83% FRL); Rio Linda High (1,596 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools at 78% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $80k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $75k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$129k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 417 days — a 12% lower offer ($580k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $390,255 (40.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 417 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.37%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 17.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $813,102
• List price: $658,990
• Delta: -18.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5601 Cancion St	0.24mi	5/4.0	2,804 (+7%)	6mo	$745,000	$266	67
3936 Waterleaf Ave	0.42mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,727 (+4%)	3mo	$850,000	$312	65
3789 Gresham Ln	0.71mi	5/4.0	2,646 (+1%)	2mo	$730,000	$276	59
4072 Waterleaf Ave	0.38mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,786 (+7%)	8mo	$850,000	$305	58
1476 Jeannie Way	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,304 (-12%)	1mo	$630,000	$273	56
3854 Watermist Way	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,307 (-12%)	2mo	$649,500	$282	55
3825 Nava Ave	0.32mi	5/3.5	2,968 (+14%)	6mo	$775,000	$261	55
5913 Filial St	0.55mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,786 (+7%)	3mo	$715,000	$257	54
3706 Yellow Leaf Ave	0.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,869 (+10%)	5mo	$752,500	$262	49
5955 Fallstaff St	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,282 (-13%)	2mo	$680,000	$298	45
5649 Harveston Way	0.54mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,223 (-15%)	2mo	$655,000	$295	43
5743 Littlestone St	0.64mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,362 (-10%)	5mo	$649,000	$275	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $222,409
• Equity at exit: $684,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.37×
• Total profit: $767,204
• Equity at exit: $1,428,333

Cash invested: $227,669 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,264
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,016 /mo · $12,197/yr
• Insurance: −$339
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$820
• Net cashflow: $-2,661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,271

Max offer price $427,999

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,099	-5% $-2,380	+0% $-2,661	+5% $-2,942	+10% $-3,223
Rent	-10% $-2,970	-5% $-2,816	+0% $-2,661	+5% $-2,507	+10% $-2,353
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,252	-0.5pp $-2,455	base $-2,661	+0.5pp $-2,872	+1.0pp $-3,086

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $203,276
• Closing costs: $24,393
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5342 Liberty Ship Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	4.0	2776	$3,650	$1.31	0d	1	0.23mi
4236 Bellwether Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2282	$3,300	$1.45	0d	1	0.49mi
3606 Damora Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2362	$3,900	$1.65	45d	1	0.56mi
5421 Shennecock Way Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2561	$3,000	$1.17	12d	1	0.82mi
3530 Callison Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2007	$3,000	$1.49	0d	1	0.90mi
11 Sola Ct Sacramento, CA	5.0	3.0	3582	$4,900	$1.37	45d	1	1.01mi
5663 Lolet Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2630	$3,295	$1.25	0d	1	1.12mi
271 Vista Cove Cir Sacramento, CA	5.0	3.0	2900	$3,595	$1.24	6d	1	1.23mi
100 Picasso Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2413	$3,950	$1.64	5d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $658,990 Active 417 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $658,990 Active 414 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $658,990 Active 413 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $693,990 Active 413 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $693,990 Active 412 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $693,990 Active 411 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $693,990 Active 409 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $693,990 Active 408 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $693,990 Active 405 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $693,990 Active 404 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $693,990 Active 403 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $693,990 Active 399 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $693,990 Active 398 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $693,990 Active 397 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $693,990 Active 396 DOM
16. 2025-08-16
    price $693,990 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    This new two-story home features an inviting open-concept floorplan on the first level that blends the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. A nearby California Room offers simple outdoor living, and a convenient bedroom is located at the front of the home. On the second floor, a versatile loft is easily accessible from two bedrooms and the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom.

17. 2025-08-15
    price $692,990 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    This new two-story home features an inviting open-concept floorplan on the first level that blends the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. A nearby California Room offers simple outdoor living, and a convenient bedroom is located at the front of the home. On the second floor, a versatile loft is easily accessible from two bedrooms and the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom.

18. 2025-08-05
    price $722,990 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    This new two-story home features an inviting open-concept floorplan on the first level that blends the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. A nearby California Room offers simple outdoor living, and a convenient bedroom is located at the front of the home. On the second floor, a versatile loft is easily accessible from two bedrooms and the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom.

19. 2025-07-03
    price $693,990 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    This new two-story home features an inviting open-concept floorplan on the first level that blends the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. A nearby California Room offers simple outdoor living, and a convenient bedroom is located at the front of the home. On the second floor, a versatile loft is easily accessible from two bedrooms and the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom.

20. 2025-06-21
    price $739,990 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    This new two-story home features an inviting open-concept floorplan on the first level that blends the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. A nearby California Room offers simple outdoor living, and a convenient bedroom is located at the front of the home. On the second floor, a versatile loft is easily accessible from two bedrooms and the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom.

21. 2025-06-13
    price $717,990 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    This new two-story home features an inviting open-concept floorplan on the first level that blends the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. A nearby California Room offers simple outdoor living, and a convenient bedroom is located at the front of the home. On the second floor, a versatile loft is easily accessible from two bedrooms and the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom.

22. 2025-06-06
    price $779,490 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    This new two-story home features an inviting open-concept floorplan on the first level that blends the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. A nearby California Room offers simple outdoor living, and a convenient bedroom is located at the front of the home. On the second floor, a versatile loft is easily accessible from two bedrooms and the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom.

23. 2025-04-30
    listed $776,490 Active 436-char remark

    Show marketing remark (436 chars)

    This new two-story home features an inviting open-concept floorplan on the first level that blends the kitchen, living and dining areas for seamless transitions and multitasking. A nearby California Room offers simple outdoor living, and a convenient bedroom is located at the front of the home. On the second floor, a versatile loft is easily accessible from two bedrooms and the luxurious owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$45,546
• − Property taxes: −$12,197
• − Insurance: −$5,568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,746
• − Management: −$3,746
• − Depreciation: −$23,654
• Taxable loss: −$47,627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,430
• After-tax cash flow: $-20,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $693,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $692,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $722,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $693,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $739,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $717,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $779,490 Zillow
• 2025-04-30 Listed $776,490 Zillow