22963 Anne Bonny Ln

Cudjoe Key, FL 33042

$580,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 834 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,042
• Tax + insurance: −$835
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-1,269/mo
• Annual: $-15,233/yr
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.23%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $162,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $580k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $356k (38.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (43.1% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($563k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $330k (43.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#811 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $580k implies a 317% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$100k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.5% in Cudjoe Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.