22963 Anne Bonny Ln · Cudjoe Key, FL 33042

$580,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 834 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1981 6,188 sqft lot Est $737k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEST PRICED CANAL FRONT HOME IN THE LOWER KEYS THIS ONE WON'T LAST LONG - VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW DRIVE BY AND TAKE A LOOK.

Key facts

• 6,188 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Boat facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Paver block
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Faces east; Has a view; Fixer
• Construction: Metal roof; Slab foundation; Resale property (existing construction)
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Screened porch; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Eat-in kitchen; First floor entry; Main-level primary; Tub with shower; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $580k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $356k (38.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (43.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (43.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.5% in Cudjoe Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#811 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$100k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($563k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $580k implies a 317% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $330,006 (43.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.23%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $737,256
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
701 Spanish Main Dr #468	0.29mi	2/2.0	864 (+4%)	7mo	$710,000	$822	75
701 Spanish Main Dr #366	0.30mi	2/2.0	816 (-2%)	16mo	$550,000	$674	69
22464 La Fitte Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0	860 (+3%)	8mo	$785,000	$913	64
22979 Sharp Ln	0.45mi	2/2.0	900 (+8%)	3mo	$808,000	$898	64
22878 Privateer Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	948 (+14%)	7mo	$817,500	$862	63
23012 Snapper Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	950 (+14%)	4mo	$840,000	$884	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $235,002
• Equity at exit: $522,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $755,559
• Equity at exit: $1,126,812

Cash invested: $162,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33042

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,042
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,000/yr
• Insurance: −$242
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-1,269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,907

Max offer price $355,750

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-941	-5% $-1,105	+0% $-1,269	+5% $-1,434	+10% $-1,598
Rent	-10% $-1,530	-5% $-1,400	+0% $-1,269	+5% $-1,139	+10% $-1,009
Rate	-1.0pp $-977	-0.5pp $-1,122	base $-1,269	+0.5pp $-1,420	+1.0pp $-1,573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $145,000
• Closing costs: $17,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $580,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $580,000 Active Under Contract 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $580,000 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $580,000 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $580,000 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $580,000 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $580,000 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $580,000 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $580,000 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $580,000 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
11. 2026-05-06
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2026-04-27
    listed $580,000 Active
13. 1997-12-02
    soldstatus $139,000 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    BEST PRICED CANAL FRONT HOME IN THE LOWER KEYS THIS ONE WON'T LAST LONG - VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW DRIVE BY AND TAKE A LOOK.

14. 1997-08-25
    listed $139,000 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    BEST PRICED CANAL FRONT HOME IN THE LOWER KEYS THIS ONE WON'T LAST LONG - VACANT AND EASY TO SHOW DRIVE BY AND TAKE A LOOK.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,000 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,814 · $401/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,814/yr (+$234/mo · 140.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,489
• − Property taxes: −$2,000
• − Insurance: −$8,018
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − Depreciation: −$16,873
• Taxable loss: −$26,116
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,268
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe
• NCES district ID: 1201320
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,955
• Composite: 45.51/100
• National rank: #2608
• State rank: #23 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cudjoe Key

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #811
• US rank: #19681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cudjoe Key, FL
• County: Monroe County · 66,185 people
• City population: 6,781
• Metro: Key West, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,441
• Household income: $103,041
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 146.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,706 people
• By 2030: 96,308 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 106,565 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 116,500 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 141,423 · +55.9%
• By 2100: 151,947 · +67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+18.3) · D 40.5% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -18.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.3 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.11%
• Current HPI: 491.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Key West, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+317.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Contingent — MARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $580,000 MARMLS
• 1997-12-02 Sold (MLS) $139,000 FLKMLS
• 1997-08-25 Listed $139,000 FLKMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,000 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.