33 Whalers Dr

Noyack, NY 11963

$1,799,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 235 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,352/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,434
• Tax + insurance: −$1,165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,904
• Net cashflow: $7,849/mo
• Annual: $94,187/yr
• Cap rate: 11.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.70%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $503,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.80M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($94k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $1.80M).
• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.58M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.58M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $178k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $165k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sag Harbor Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 426 students, 22% FRL); Pierson Middle/High School (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #763 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 525 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 8% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $200k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $650k; list at $1.80M implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $504k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$285k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.