33 Whalers Dr · Noyack, NY 11963

$1,799,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 226 Days on market

Built 1996 0.46 ac lot $1124/sqft · at area comps Est $1855k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on a 20,056 sq. ft. lot (approx. 0.46 acres) and backed by a natural preserve, this Sag Harbor property offers a rare sense of privacy and calm in a highly desirable location. The setting is quiet and secluded, yet just minutes from Sag Harbor Village, beaches, and local amenities. The property features two separate, well-maintained structures: a 910 sq. ft. main residence and a 690 sq. ft. detached two-story garage with studio above — a layout that delivers flexibility, comfort, and privacy without compromise. The Main Residence: The main house is a classic 3-bedroom, 2-bath Saltbox that is move-in ready and full of timeless Hamptons charm. The layout is functional and inviting, with comfortable living spaces that work beautifully as a primary home, weekend retreat, or summer residence. This is a home you can enjoy immediately — no renovations or updates required. The Detached Garage & Studio: The detached two-story garage with studio above adds exceptional value and usability. It works perfectly as: • A private home office • Guest accommodations • Creative or wellness space • Separate living area with privacy from the main house The separation between the structures creates a true compound feel, ideal for hosting guests or maintaining personal space. The Outdoor Setting: The grounds are open, peaceful, and naturally buffered by the preserve, creating a tranquil outdoor environment for everyday living and entertaining. The property offers plenty of space for outdoor dining, relaxation, and enjoying the Hamptons lifestyle in complete privacy. Why This Property Works: This is a home that delivers immediate enjoyment, privacy, and versatility — all without the need for change or expansion. The combination of land, setting, and dual structures makes it a rare find in Sag Harbor. Two structures. Preserve-backed privacy. Turnkey and ready to enjoy.

Key facts

• Secluded grounds
• Private home office
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE HALF ACRE LOT
• PROTECTED PRESERVE LAND
• QUICK ACCESS TO WATERFRONT
• FINISHED VERSATILE SPACE
• PRIVATE HOME OFFICE
• SECLUDED GROUNDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.80M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($98k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $1.80M).
• Recommended offer: $1.58M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 7.1% in Noyack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,800/mo this rent would consume 224% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $178k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $165k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $504k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$285k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.58M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $200k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $650k; list at $1.80M implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,583,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.54%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,855,000
• List price: $1,799,000
• Delta: -3.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
300 Madison St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+2%)	5mo	$1,855,000	$1,139	60
36 Denison Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-9%)	5mo	$1,750,000	$1,202	49
1215 Middle Line Hwy	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-6%)	11mo	$1,500,000	$1,000	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $1,527,934
• Equity at exit: $1,515,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.69×
• Total profit: $4,377,174
• Equity at exit: $3,161,120

Cash invested: $503,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,434
• Tax from tax record: −$416 /mo · $4,988/yr
• Insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,998
• Net cashflow: $8,202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,417

Max offer price $1,799,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,221	-5% $8,711	+0% $8,202	+5% $7,693	+10% $7,184
Rent	-10% $6,322	-5% $7,262	+0% $8,202	+5% $9,142	+10% $10,082
Rate	-1.0pp $9,108	-0.5pp $8,660	base $8,202	+0.5pp $7,736	+1.0pp $7,262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $449,750
• Closing costs: $53,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1008 Middle Line Hwy Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	3.0	1904	$30,000	$15.76	0d	1	0.31mi
364 Main St Unit B Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$35,000	$29.17	23d	1	0.59mi
15 Mount Misery Dr Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	3.0	1848	$75,000	$40.58	23d	1	0.72mi
15 Mount Misery Dr Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	3.0	1848	$25,000	$13.53	0d	1	0.72mi
68 W Water St Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	2.0	1740	$40,000	$22.99	44d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 214 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,799,000 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 209 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 208 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,799,000 Active 205 DOM
15. 2025-12-07
    price $1,799,000 1935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1935 chars)

    Set on a 20,056 sq. ft. lot (approx. 0.46 acres) and backed by a natural preserve, this Sag Harbor property offers a rare sense of privacy and calm in a highly desirable location. The setting is quiet and secluded, yet just minutes from Sag Harbor Village, beaches, and local amenities. The property features two separate, well-maintained structures: a 910 sq. ft. main residence and a 690 sq. ft. detached two-story garage with studio above — a layout that delivers flexibility, comfort, and privacy without compromise. The Main Residence: The main house is a classic 3-bedroom, 2-bath Saltbox that is move-in ready and full of timeless Hamptons charm. The layout is functional and inviting, with comfortable living spaces that work beautifully as a primary home, weekend retreat, or summer residence. This is a home you can enjoy immediately — no renovations or updates required. The Detached Garage & Studio: The detached two-story garage with studio above adds exceptional value and usability. It works perfectly as: • A private home office • Guest accommodations • Creative or wellness space • Separate living area with privacy from the main house The separation between the structures creates a true compound feel, ideal for hosting guests or maintaining personal space. The Outdoor Setting: The grounds are open, peaceful, and naturally buffered by the preserve, creating a tranquil outdoor environment for everyday living and entertaining. The property offers plenty of space for outdoor dining, relaxation, and enjoying the Hamptons lifestyle in complete privacy. Why This Property Works: This is a home that delivers immediate enjoyment, privacy, and versatility — all without the need for change or expansion. The combination of land, setting, and dual structures makes it a rare find in Sag Harbor. Two structures. Preserve-backed privacy. Turnkey and ready to enjoy.

16. 2025-11-04
    listed $1,999,000 Active 1935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1935 chars)

    Set on a 20,056 sq. ft. lot (approx. 0.46 acres) and backed by a natural preserve, this Sag Harbor property offers a rare sense of privacy and calm in a highly desirable location. The setting is quiet and secluded, yet just minutes from Sag Harbor Village, beaches, and local amenities. The property features two separate, well-maintained structures: a 910 sq. ft. main residence and a 690 sq. ft. detached two-story garage with studio above — a layout that delivers flexibility, comfort, and privacy without compromise. The Main Residence: The main house is a classic 3-bedroom, 2-bath Saltbox that is move-in ready and full of timeless Hamptons charm. The layout is functional and inviting, with comfortable living spaces that work beautifully as a primary home, weekend retreat, or summer residence. This is a home you can enjoy immediately — no renovations or updates required. The Detached Garage & Studio: The detached two-story garage with studio above adds exceptional value and usability. It works perfectly as: • A private home office • Guest accommodations • Creative or wellness space • Separate living area with privacy from the main house The separation between the structures creates a true compound feel, ideal for hosting guests or maintaining personal space. The Outdoor Setting: The grounds are open, peaceful, and naturally buffered by the preserve, creating a tranquil outdoor environment for everyday living and entertaining. The property offers plenty of space for outdoor dining, relaxation, and enjoying the Hamptons lifestyle in complete privacy. Why This Property Works: This is a home that delivers immediate enjoyment, privacy, and versatility — all without the need for change or expansion. The combination of land, setting, and dual structures makes it a rare find in Sag Harbor. Two structures. Preserve-backed privacy. Turnkey and ready to enjoy.

17. 2025-09-27
    price $1,699,999
18. 2025-09-12
    price $1,799,999
19. 2025-09-03
    price $1,839,999
20. 2025-09-03
    price $1,849,999
21. 2025-09-03
    status Active
22. 2025-06-25
    price $1,874,990
23. 2025-05-22
    price $1,995,000
24. 2025-04-15
    price $2,099,000
25. 2025-03-09
    listed $2,259,000 Active
26. 2025-03-06
    historical
27. 2019-12-30
    soldstatus $650,000
28. 2001-01-24
    soldstatus $329,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,988 · $416/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,696 · $1,475/mo
• Expected delta: +$12,708/yr (+$1,059/mo · 254.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $285,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,772
• − Property taxes: −$4,988
• − Insurance: −$8,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,848
• − Management: −$22,848
• − Depreciation: −$52,335
• Taxable income: $72,810
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17,474
• After-tax cash flow: $80,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Noyack

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1084
• US rank: #21915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noyack, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,114
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+446.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $1,799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Listed $1,999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $1,699,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $1,799,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $1,839,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $1,849,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $1,874,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $1,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $2,099,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-09 Listed $2,259,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-06 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $650,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $329,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,988 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.