239 N Church St

Cynthiana, KY 41031

$189,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,504 sqft · Built 1884 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,665/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $200/mo
• Annual: $2,404/yr
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.54%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (11.9% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#113 in KY, #4,911 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Harrison County (town): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #133 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 411 students, 61% FRL); Harrison County Middle School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 607 students, 58% FRL); Harrison County High School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #74 of 254 statewide, top 29%, 865 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1884 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harrison County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $189k implies a 464% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.5% in Cynthiana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1884 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.