4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,521 sqft ·
Built 1984
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 132 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,408/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,284
Tax + insurance
−$662
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$506
Net cashflow
$-44/mo
Annual
$-526/yr
Cap rate
6.08%
Cash-on-cash
-0.77%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.98%
Cash to close
$68,572
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-526/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (3.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (1.7% below list).
It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
11 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $85k; list at $245k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-GKWFY0FKBH4RF2
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29