412 N 16th St

Guthrie, OK 73044

$145,999C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,047 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,336/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $157/mo
• Annual: $1,883/yr
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $40,880

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (8.5% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $134k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Guthrie (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #119 of 270 in OK (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cotteral Es (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #354 of 845 statewide, top 47%, 294 students, 0% FRL); Guthrie Hs (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #125 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,025 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 843 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.0% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.