412 N 16th St · Guthrie, OK 73044

$145,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,047 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1930 10,454 sqft lot Est $154k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently remodeled 3 bed, 2 bath home full of charm, character, and modern updates! This move-in ready property features fresh interior improvements throughout, including brand new mini split systems for efficient heating and cooling and a brand new roof for added peace of mind. The updated living spaces create a bright and inviting feel while still maintaining the home’s original character. Conveniently located near historic downtown Guthrie with quick access to local restaurants, coffee shops, antique stores, and popular attractions like the Guthrie Historic District, The Blue Belle Saloon, Katie’s Diner, and the beautiful Territorial Plaza. Enjoy small-town charm while still

Key facts

• Recently remodeled
• Brand new roof
• Mini split systems

Tags

• RECENTLY REMODELED
• MINI SPLIT SYSTEMS
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• UPDATED LIVING SPACES
• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN GUTHRIE
• POPULAR ATTRACTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property in the Capitol Heights addition
• Financial info: Loan qualification: Yes
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Existing property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Combination foundation; Built in prior years (existing)
• Exterior features: Open patio; Interior lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: One living area; Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.0% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Guthrie (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #119 of 270 in OK (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cotteral Es (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #354 of 845 statewide, top 47%, 294 students, 0% FRL); Guthrie Hs (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #125 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,025 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 843 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,634 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $153,909
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 N 17th St	0.24mi	2/1.0	995 (-5%)	12mo	$150,350	$151	71
1823 W Noble Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+7%)	1mo	$166,500	$149	70
1423 W Logan Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+10%)	7mo	$148,200	$129	65
1406 W Washington Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,088 (+4%)	15mo	$135,000	$124	64
1208 W Logan Ave	0.35mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (+7%)	3mo	$165,000	$147	63
1817 W Harrison Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-4%)	10mo	$130,000	$130	62
1810 W Vilas Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,098 (+5%)	9mo	$165,000	$150	62
1208 W Noble Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,022 (-2%)	13mo	$175,000	$171	61
1011 W Mansur Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+10%)	1mo	$122,165	$106	57
1119 W Logan Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,004 (-4%)	18mo	$148,000	$147	56
611 Jones Rd	0.68mi	2/1.5	1,026 (-2%)	10mo	$310,000	$302	55
920 W Warner Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0	907 (-13%)	3mo	$35,000	$39	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,650
• Equity at exit: $21,769

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $39,028
• Equity at exit: $12,623

Cash invested: $40,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73044

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 843
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $868/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,138

Max offer price $145,999

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,500
• Closing costs: $4,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Harvest Rd Unit 109H Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,303	$0.99	1d	1	0.49mi
2511 W Oklahoma Ave Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,200	$0.87	1d	1	0.67mi
409 E Hill Dr Guthrie, OK	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,445	$1.11	10d	1	1.46mi
520 E Springer Ave Guthrie, OK	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,300	$1.19	23d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $145,999 Active
3. 2025-10-20
   historical
4. 2025-09-30
   status Active
5. 2025-09-13
   status Pending
6. 2025-08-21
   price $90,000
7. 2025-07-08
   price $100,000
8. 2025-06-21
   status Active
9. 2025-06-18
   status Pending
10. 2025-06-13
    price $105,000
11. 2025-05-29
    price $115,000
12. 2025-05-13
    status Active
13. 2025-03-22
    status Pending
14. 2025-03-19
    price $120,000
15. 2025-02-26
    listed $130,000 Active
16. 2024-11-21
    historical
17. 2024-09-17
    listed $130,000 Active
18. 2013-09-02
    historical
19. 2012-05-15
    listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $868 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,314 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$446/yr (+$37/mo · 51.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,178
• − Property taxes: −$868
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,283
• − Management: −$1,283
• − Depreciation: −$4,247
• Taxable loss: −$553
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$133
• After-tax cash flow: $2,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guthrie
• NCES district ID: 4013560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,370
• Composite: 20.79/100
• National rank: #8513
• State rank: #119 of 270 in OK

Livability — Guthrie

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #4696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guthrie, OK
• County: Logan County · 25,398 people
• City population: 25,398
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 25,398
• Household income: $72,288
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,683 people
• By 2030: 60,011 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 68,071 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 75,815 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 94,749 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 108,057 · +94.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.4% · R 73.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.1 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.90%
• Current HPI: 247.9481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.22%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+873.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — MLSOK
• 2026-05-11 Listed $145,999 MLSOK
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2025-09-30 Relisted — MLSOK
• 2025-09-13 Pending — MLSOK
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $90,000 MLSOK
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $100,000 MLSOK
• 2025-06-21 Relisted — MLSOK
• 2025-06-18 Pending — MLSOK
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $105,000 MLSOK
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $115,000 MLSOK
• 2025-05-13 Relisted — MLSOK
• 2025-03-22 Pending — MLSOK
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $120,000 MLSOK
• 2025-02-26 Listed $130,000 MLSOK
• 2024-11-21 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2024-09-17 Listed $130,000 MLSOK
• 2013-09-02 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2012-05-15 Listed $15,000 MLSOK

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $868 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.