15080 NE 242nd Ave

Lake Kerr, FL 32134

$130,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 2012 · Manufactured · Pending · 235 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,512/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$554
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-41/mo
• Annual: $-496/yr
• Cap rate: 9.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.70%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-496/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (5.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fort Mccoy School (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 964 students, 73% FRL); North Marion High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,303 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Marion average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $130k implies a 333% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.6% in Lake Kerr — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?