15080 NE 242nd Ave · Lake Kerr, FL 32134

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 235 Days on market

Built 2012 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable Lakefront Retreat on Little Lake Kerr! Looking for the perfect waterfront getaway with canal access for your boat? This property has it all — canal frontage leading to beautiful Little Lake Kerr, complete with boat ramp and a private covered wet dock ideal for jet skis, kayaks, or your boat. Inside, you’ll find a 2-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an open-concept living area and a split bedroom floor plan for added privacy. A storage shed provides extra space for equipment, toys and tools. With a bit of TLC, this could become your dream lake retreat!

Key facts

• Lakefront retreat
• Canal access
• Canal frontage

Tags

• LAKEFRONT RETREAT
• CANAL ACCESS
• CANAL FRONTAGE
• BOAT RAMP
• PRIVATE COVERED WET DOCK
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-496/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (5.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.6% in Lake Kerr — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fort Mccoy School (math 35% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 964 students, 73% FRL); North Marion High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,303 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Marion average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $130k implies a 333% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.70%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-23,466
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-22,886
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32134

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $883/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $122,702

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-5	+0% $-41	+5% $-78	+10% $-115
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-101	+0% $-41	+5% $18	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $24	-0.5pp $-8	base $-41	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 624-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   statusdays on market $130,000 Pending 235 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 232 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 231 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 227 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 225 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $130,000 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 223 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 584-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $130,000 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,999 Active 218 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,999 Active 217 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,999 Active 215 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,999 Active 214 DOM
18. 2026-03-05
    price $149,999 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Affordable Lakefront Retreat on Little Lake Kerr! Looking for the perfect waterfront getaway with canal access for your boat? This property has it all — canal frontage leading to beautiful Little Lake Kerr, complete with boat ramp and a private covered wet dock ideal for jet skis, kayaks, or your boat. Inside, you’ll find a 2-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an open-concept living area and a split bedroom floor plan for added privacy. A storage shed provides extra space for equipment, toys and tools. With a bit of TLC, this could become your dream lake retreat!

19. 2025-10-28
    listed $165,000 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Affordable Lakefront Retreat on Little Lake Kerr! Looking for the perfect waterfront getaway with canal access for your boat? This property has it all — canal frontage leading to beautiful Little Lake Kerr, complete with boat ramp and a private covered wet dock ideal for jet skis, kayaks, or your boat. Inside, you’ll find a 2-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring an open-concept living area and a split bedroom floor plan for added privacy. A storage shed provides extra space for equipment, toys and tools. With a bit of TLC, this could become your dream lake retreat!

20. 2005-12-13
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $883 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$196/yr (+$16/mo · 22.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$883
• − Insurance: −$5,768
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$593
• After-tax cash flow: $97/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kerr

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Kerr, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,400

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.45%
• Current HPI: 224.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $149,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $883 · +32.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.