20394 Saxis Rd

Saxis, VA 23427

$55,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,252/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$518
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $183/mo
• Annual: $2,194/yr
• Cap rate: 19.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.48%
• DSCR: 3.11
• 1% rule: 2.28%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $718 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#526 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, housing D+, amenities F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kegotank Elementary (math 26% / reading 51%, grade F, #924 of 1,108 statewide, top 84%, 479 students, 104% FRL); Arcadia Middle (math 35% / reading 54%, grade D, #278 of 342 statewide, top 82%, 482 students, 102% FRL); Arcadia High (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #213 of 319 statewide, top 69%, 713 students, 117% FRL) — zoned schools average 108% FRL vs 63% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Severe rot and damage
• Major: roof — Significant damage and missing shingles
• Major: windows — Broken and missing windows
• Major: interior walls — No interior photos, but exterior suggests significant structural issues