20394 Saxis Rd · Saxis, VA 23427

$55,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Built 1930 Poor condition 0.38 ac lot $36/sqft · 74% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity on Saxis Island with water views and endless potential. Situated on approximately 0.38 acres, this property offers a rare chance to build or rebuild in a peaceful coastal setting surrounded by natural beauty and abundant wildlife. The existing home, originally built in 1930, is approximately 1,512 sq ft with 3 bedrooms and 1 bath. The structure is uninhabitable and requires full renovation or replacement, making it ideal for investors, builders, or buyers seeking to create a custom coastal retreat. The home is elevated on a concrete foundation and features a metal roof, partial window installations, and an elevated design suited for coastal living. Well and septic are present; no permits on file and condition is unknown. The spacious lot offers room to design outdoor living areas and maximize water views and coastal breezes. Saxis Island is known for its quiet charm, working waterfront, and access to fishing, crabbing, boating, and kayaking. Nearby Chincoteague and Assateague Island provide beaches, wild ponies, and protected shoreline. Cash or construction/land financing only. Property will not qualify for traditional mortgage financing. Sold as-is. Enter at own risk. Bring your vision and transform this unique property into a stunning Eastern Shore escape.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Outdoor living areas
• Working waterfront

Tags

• FULL RENOVATION
• CUSTOM COASTAL RETREAT
• CONCRETE FOUNDATION
• METAL ROOF
• OUTDOOR LIVING AREAS
• WORKING WATERFRONT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#526 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, housing D+, amenities F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kegotank Elementary (math 26% / reading 51%, grade F, #924 of 1,108 statewide, top 84%, 479 students, 104% FRL); Arcadia Middle (math 35% / reading 54%, grade D, #278 of 342 statewide, top 82%, 482 students, 102% FRL); Arcadia High (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #213 of 319 statewide, top 69%, 713 students, 117% FRL) — zoned schools average 108% FRL vs 63% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $718 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.48%
• DSCR: 3.11
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,749
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -74.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20397 Saxis Rd	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (-3%)	11mo	$139,900	$95	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $7,029
• Equity at exit: $12,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $25,968
• Equity at exit: $12,425

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23427

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,021

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $202	+0% $183	+5% $164	+10% $145
Rent	-10% $84	-5% $133	+0% $183	+5% $232	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $197	base $183	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $55,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $55,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $55,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-03-27
    listed $55,000 Active 1299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    Rare opportunity on Saxis Island to create your own coastal retreat with water views, salty breezes, and unforgettable sunset skies. Approx 0.38-acre lot offers space to build a custom home in a peaceful island setting surrounded by wildlife and natural beauty. Existing 1930 home (3BR/1BA, ~1,512 sq ft) is uninhabitable and best suited for rebuild or full renovation. Elevated on a concrete foundation with metal roof and partial window updates. Well and septic present (no permits on file; condition unknown). Enjoy fishing, crabbing, boating, and kayaking nearby, with easy access to Chincoteague and Assateague beaches. Cash or construction/land financing only. Sold as-is. Enter at own risk.

20. 2026-03-27
    listed $55,000 Active 697-char remark

    Show marketing remark (697 chars)

    Rare opportunity on Saxis Island to create your own coastal retreat with water views, salty breezes, and unforgettable sunset skies. Approx 0.38-acre lot offers space to build a custom home in a peaceful island setting surrounded by wildlife and natural beauty. Existing 1930 home (3BR/1BA, ~1,512 sq ft) is uninhabitable and best suited for rebuild or full renovation. Elevated on a concrete foundation with metal roof and partial window updates. Well and septic present (no permits on file; condition unknown). Enjoy fishing, crabbing, boating, and kayaking nearby, with easy access to Chincoteague and Assateague beaches. Cash or construction/land financing only. Sold as-is. Enter at own risk.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$5,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,202
• − Management: −$1,202
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $1,726
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$414
• After-tax cash flow: $1,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Poor 20/100 Gut rehab

This property requires a full renovation and extensive repairs due to severe structural and exterior damage. It offers a unique opportunity for an investor to create a custom coastal retreat with water views and endless potential.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Severe rot and damage
• Major roof — Significant damage and missing shingles
• Major windows — Broken and missing windows
• Major interior walls — No interior photos, but exterior suggests significant structural issues

Value-add opportunities

• Both full renovation — The home is uninhabitable and requires extensive work to be habitable
• Both landscaping — The property has potential for landscaping to enhance curb appeal and value
• Both waterproofing — The property is located near water, and waterproofing is crucial for long-term value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Severe rot and damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Significant damage and missing shingles	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Broken and missing windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · No interior photos, but exterior suggests significant structural issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both full renovation — The home is uninhabitable and requires extensive work to be habitable ↑
• Both landscaping — The property has potential for landscaping to enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both waterproofing — The property is located near water, and waterproofing is crucial for long-term value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Saxis

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #24137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saxis, VA
• Population (ZIP): 233

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.31%
• Current HPI: 108.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $55,000 ESAR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS