5440 S Macdill Ave Unit 3H

Tampa, FL 33611

$184,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 884 sqft · Built 1987 · Condo · Pending · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,946/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax + insurance: −$236
• HOA: −$375
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-463/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $51,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $184k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-463/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (3.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ballast Point Elementary School (math 70% / reading 73%, grade A-, #314 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 445 students, 26% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 563 students, 65% FRL); Robinson High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,354 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 426 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 10122% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $138k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?