5440 S Macdill Ave Unit 3H · Tampa, FL 33611

$184,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 884 sqft · Condo public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1987 $375/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to "The Preserve, " an elegant and private property located in desirable South Tampa. This second-floor 2-bedroom, 1-bath condominium presents an attractive opportunity for residence or investment. The unit provides maintenance-free living, with assigned parking conveniently positioned at the entrance. A pass-through opens from the well-appointed kitchen to a spacious combined living and dining area. Both bedrooms offer walk-in closets for ample storage. The main living spaces feature durable laminate flooring, while the bedrooms are carpeted. Additional features include ceiling fans and granite countertops in both the kitchen and bathroom. Residents will appreciate the in-unit washer and dryer, complete with dedicated shelving and extra storage space. Community amenities include professionally landscaped grounds, a barbecue and picnic area, and plentiful guest parking. Up to two pets are allowed (maximum 40 pounds each). This location offers excellent proximity to Bayshore Boulevard, shopping centers, renowned dining venues, MacDill Air Force Base, and major transportation routes, providing easy access throughout the Tampa Bay region, including St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Pinellas beaches, and area airports. Showings are available by appointment.

Key facts

• Walk in closets
• Assigned parking
• Granite countertops

Tags

• ASSIGNED PARKING
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• DURABLE LAMINATE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• IN UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• BARBECUE AND PICNIC AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-464/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (3.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ballast Point Elementary School (math 70% / reading 73%, grade A-, #314 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 445 students, 26% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 563 students, 65% FRL); Robinson High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,354 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 423 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 10122% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $138k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,440 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-36,482
• Equity at exit: $27,435

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-51,377
• Equity at exit: $15,909

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33611

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,908/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,994

Max offer price $177,171

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $13	+0% $-39	+5% $-91	+10% $-143
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-116	+0% $-39	+5% $38	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $8	base $-39	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5440 S Macdill Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	884	$1,700	$1.92	5d	1	0.03mi
2911 W Tyson Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	650	$1,723	$2.65	24d	1	0.09mi
2910 W Pearl Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1107	$2,450	$2.21	20d	1	0.19mi
2706 W Tyson Ave Unit B Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,800	$3.00	26d	1	0.33mi
2706 W Tyson Ave Unit C Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,650	$2.75	26d	1	0.33mi
5411 Bayshore Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	608	$2,100	$3.45	26d	3	0.40mi
3394 W Wyoming Cir Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	930	$2,600	$2.80	26d	1	0.42mi
6306 S Macdill Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	747	$2,176	$2.91	1d	14	0.58mi
6244 S Martindale Ave Unit B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,990	$2.34	26d	1	0.62mi
3404 W Marlin Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,900	$2.08	7d	10	0.71mi
5000 S Himes Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$2,155	$2.49	0d	7	0.73mi
3701 W Wyoming Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,550	$1.72	26d	1	0.73mi
5113 S Clarice Ct Unit 5113A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	17d	1	0.83mi
5107 S Clarice Ct Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	3d	1	0.84mi
5101 S Clarice Ct Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	820	$1,300	$1.59	26d	1	0.85mi
5117 S Clarice Ct Unit 5117A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,756	$1.95	16d	1	0.86mi
5901 S Dale Mabry Hwy Unit B Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	26d	1	0.87mi
6001 S Dale Mabry Hwy Unit 08 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	830	$1,195	$1.44	26d	1	0.90mi
3809 W Iowa Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,125	$1.73	7d	3	0.91mi
3730 W Bay Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$1,199	$1.55	26d	1	0.91mi
3414 W Oakellar Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1078	$1,850	$1.72	15d	1	0.91mi
3030 W Napoleon Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1055	$2,100	$1.99	7d	1	0.95mi
6712 S Gabrielle St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,499	$2.31	20d	1	1.03mi
5055 S Dale Mabry Hwy Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$2,000	$2.51	5d	28	1.09mi
6317 S Roberts Ave Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,600	$1.85	24d	1	1.13mi
5145 S Dale Mabry Hwy Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$3,253	$3.08	0d	19	1.16mi
6405 S Roberts Ave Unit B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	26d	1	1.18mi
6319 S Church Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,900	$2.70	26d	1	1.21mi
6415 S Roberts Ave Unit 105 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$975	$1.69	7d	1	1.22mi
6908 S Macdill Ave Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	863	$2,000	$2.32	26d	1	1.26mi
6422 S Adelia Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	918	$2,400	$2.61	26d	1	1.31mi
6910 Interbay Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,681	$2.24	24d	10	1.40mi
4015 Bayshore Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	656	$2,198	$3.35	0d	2	1.41mi
4301 W Bay Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	950	$2,298	$2.42	22d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-14
   price $1,700
2. 2026-04-13
   price $184,000 1285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1285 chars)

   Welcome to "The Preserve, " an elegant and private property located in desirable South Tampa. This second-floor 2-bedroom, 1-bath condominium presents an attractive opportunity for residence or investment. The unit provides maintenance-free living, with assigned parking conveniently positioned at the entrance. A pass-through opens from the well-appointed kitchen to a spacious combined living and dining area. Both bedrooms offer walk-in closets for ample storage. The main living spaces feature durable laminate flooring, while the bedrooms are carpeted. Additional features include ceiling fans and granite countertops in both the kitchen and bathroom. Residents will appreciate the in-unit washer and dryer, complete with dedicated shelving and extra storage space. Community amenities include professionally landscaped grounds, a barbecue and picnic area, and plentiful guest parking. Up to two pets are allowed (maximum 40 pounds each). This location offers excellent proximity to Bayshore Boulevard, shopping centers, renowned dining venues, MacDill Air Force Base, and major transportation routes, providing easy access throughout the Tampa Bay region, including St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Pinellas beaches, and area airports. Showings are available by appointment.

3. 2026-03-26
   listed $1,800
4. 2026-02-11
   listed $189,000 Active 1285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1285 chars)

   Welcome to "The Preserve, " an elegant and private property located in desirable South Tampa. This second-floor 2-bedroom, 1-bath condominium presents an attractive opportunity for residence or investment. The unit provides maintenance-free living, with assigned parking conveniently positioned at the entrance. A pass-through opens from the well-appointed kitchen to a spacious combined living and dining area. Both bedrooms offer walk-in closets for ample storage. The main living spaces feature durable laminate flooring, while the bedrooms are carpeted. Additional features include ceiling fans and granite countertops in both the kitchen and bathroom. Residents will appreciate the in-unit washer and dryer, complete with dedicated shelving and extra storage space. Community amenities include professionally landscaped grounds, a barbecue and picnic area, and plentiful guest parking. Up to two pets are allowed (maximum 40 pounds each). This location offers excellent proximity to Bayshore Boulevard, shopping centers, renowned dining venues, MacDill Air Force Base, and major transportation routes, providing easy access throughout the Tampa Bay region, including St. Petersburg, Clearwater, Pinellas beaches, and area airports. Showings are available by appointment.

5. 2024-05-02
   historical $1,850
6. 2024-04-09
   listed $1,850
7. 2020-08-18
   soldstatus $138,000
8. 2020-08-17
   soldstatus $138,000 Sold 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   Pristine condo located in South Tampa just 4 blocks from Bayshore Boulevard and priced well below market to sell quickly. The Preserve at South Tampa is an adorable gated community conveniently located near Hyde Park & Downtown Tampa. This 2 bedroom, one bath Condo has wide plank hardwoods, granite, stainless appliances, customized walk-in closets and full size washer/dryer in the unit. Being on the second floor means no one is disturbing you from above. Grill dinner in a park-like patio area outside your door and enjoy a reserved parking space. Perfect for a first time homebuyer or investor.

9. 2020-07-09
   status Pending 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   Pristine condo located in South Tampa just 4 blocks from Bayshore Boulevard and priced well below market to sell quickly. The Preserve at South Tampa is an adorable gated community conveniently located near Hyde Park & Downtown Tampa. This 2 bedroom, one bath Condo has wide plank hardwoods, granite, stainless appliances, customized walk-in closets and full size washer/dryer in the unit. Being on the second floor means no one is disturbing you from above. Grill dinner in a park-like patio area outside your door and enjoy a reserved parking space. Perfect for a first time homebuyer or investor.

10. 2020-07-03
    listed $129,900 Active 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Pristine condo located in South Tampa just 4 blocks from Bayshore Boulevard and priced well below market to sell quickly. The Preserve at South Tampa is an adorable gated community conveniently located near Hyde Park & Downtown Tampa. This 2 bedroom, one bath Condo has wide plank hardwoods, granite, stainless appliances, customized walk-in closets and full size washer/dryer in the unit. Being on the second floor means no one is disturbing you from above. Grill dinner in a park-like patio area outside your door and enjoy a reserved parking space. Perfect for a first time homebuyer or investor.

11. 2006-12-22
    soldstatus $161,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$1,908
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable loss: −$3,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$811
• After-tax cash flow: $347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,810
• Household income: $90,910
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.23%
• Current HPI: 374.7996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.69%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-98.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $1,700 STELLARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $184,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed for Rent $1,800 STELLARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-02 Rental Removed $1,850 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-04-09 Listed for Rent $1,850 TURBOTENANT
• 2020-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-17 Sold (MLS) $138,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-03 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-22 Sold (MLS) $161,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,908 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.