17481 Us Route 11 #51

Watertown, NY 13601

$56,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 973 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Pending · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,655/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax + insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $920/mo
• Annual: $11,044/yr
• Cap rate: 26.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.44%
• DSCR: 4.13
• 1% rule: 2.96%
• Cash to close: $15,680

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $920 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $51k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $387 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• South Jefferson Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #420 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maynard P Wilson Elementary School (math 31% / reading 56%, grade F, #1,350 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 520 students, 37% FRL); Clarke Middle School (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #433 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 435 students, 41% FRL); South Jefferson High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 553 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 26.0% vs local median 6.3% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.