17481 Us Route 11 #51 · Watertown, NY 13601

$56,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 973 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 2022 Excellent condition 3,484 sqft lot Est $46k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this extremely well-kept, newly constructed 973 sq ft single-wide mobile home, built in 2022, and still resembles brand new, located in Northland Estates, conveniently situated between Watertown and Adams Center. Upon recent review of school boundary lines, this property is located within the highly sought-after South Jefferson School District, offering a great opportunity to own a home in this desirable district. This move-in-ready home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a functional and efficient layout. The open living area is bright and welcoming, flowing seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space. The primary bedroom includes a private full bathroom, providing added comfort and privacy. Pride of ownership is evident throughout, as the home has been meticulously maintained and is truly move-in ready. The park allows up to two animals, making this a great option for pet owners. The shed also does convey with the property. Lot rent is approximately $550 per month and includes water, sewer, and all school and county taxes, offering excellent value and predictable monthly expenses. This property also presents an opportunity for financing, making ownership more accessible. With modern finishes, low-maintenance living, and a convenient location close to shopping, dining, Fort Drum, and major commuting routes, this is an outstanding opportunity for affordable homeownership in a well-established community. The lot size and acreage are as close as possible based on agent measurements.

Key facts

• Newly constructed
• Move-in ready
• 3,484 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEWLY CONSTRUCTED
• LOCATED IN NORTHLAND ESTATES
• MOVE-IN READY
• PRIVATE FULL BATHROOM
• ALLOWS UP TO TWO ANIMALS
• SHED CONVEYS WITH PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $920 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.0% vs local median 6.3% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• South Jefferson Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #420 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $387 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $50,960 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.44%
• DSCR: 4.13
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $45,731
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17481 Us Route 11 Unit 8-D	0.19mi	3/2.0	952 (-2%)	24mo	$44,900	$47	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $58,314
• Equity at exit: $8,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.60×
• Total profit: $166,165
• Equity at exit: $4,842

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,655 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$70 /mo · $840/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $920

Break-even live

Break-even rent $490

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $959	-5% $940	+0% $920	+5% $901	+10% $882
Rent	-10% $790	-5% $855	+0% $920	+5% $986	+10% $1,051
Rate	-1.0pp $949	-0.5pp $935	base $920	+0.5pp $906	+1.0pp $891

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1528-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1528 chars)

   Welcome to this extremely well-kept, newly constructed 973 sq ft single-wide mobile home, built in 2022, and still resembles brand new, located in Northland Estates, conveniently situated between Watertown and Adams Center. Upon recent review of school boundary lines, this property is located within the highly sought-after South Jefferson School District, offering a great opportunity to own a home in this desirable district. This move-in-ready home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a functional and efficient layout. The open living area is bright and welcoming, flowing seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space. The primary bedroom includes a private full bathroom, providing added comfort and privacy. Pride of ownership is evident throughout, as the home has been meticulously maintained and is truly move-in ready. The park allows up to two animals, making this a great option for pet owners. The shed also does convey with the property. Lot rent is approximately $550 per month and includes water, sewer, and all school and county taxes, offering excellent value and predictable monthly expenses. This property also presents an opportunity for financing, making ownership more accessible. With modern finishes, low-maintenance living, and a convenient location close to shopping, dining, Fort Drum, and major commuting routes, this is an outstanding opportunity for affordable homeownership in a well-established community. The lot size and acreage are as close as possible based on agent measurements.

2. 2026-01-20
   listed $56,000 Active 1528-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1528 chars)

   Welcome to this extremely well-kept, newly constructed 973 sq ft single-wide mobile home, built in 2022, and still resembles brand new, located in Northland Estates, conveniently situated between Watertown and Adams Center. Upon recent review of school boundary lines, this property is located within the highly sought-after South Jefferson School District, offering a great opportunity to own a home in this desirable district. This move-in-ready home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a functional and efficient layout. The open living area is bright and welcoming, flowing seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space. The primary bedroom includes a private full bathroom, providing added comfort and privacy. Pride of ownership is evident throughout, as the home has been meticulously maintained and is truly move-in ready. The park allows up to two animals, making this a great option for pet owners. The shed also does convey with the property. Lot rent is approximately $550 per month and includes water, sewer, and all school and county taxes, offering excellent value and predictable monthly expenses. This property also presents an opportunity for financing, making ownership more accessible. With modern finishes, low-maintenance living, and a convenient location close to shopping, dining, Fort Drum, and major commuting routes, this is an outstanding opportunity for affordable homeownership in a well-established community. The lot size and acreage are as close as possible based on agent measurements.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$840
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $10,795
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,591
• After-tax cash flow: $8,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready, newly constructed 973 sq ft single-wide mobile home in Northland Estates is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity to own a home in the highly sought-after South Jefferson School District.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Jefferson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602340
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,872
• Composite: 41.27/100
• National rank: #3522
• State rank: #420 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $56,000 CNYIS