1123 Forest Rd

Sebring, FL 33872

$175,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,636 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,782/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $269/mo
• Annual: $3,223/yr
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.58%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Memorial Elementary School (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,437 of 2,144 statewide, top 68%, 532 students, 78% FRL); Hill-Gustat Middle School (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 705 students, 63% FRL); Sebring High School (math 32% / reading 48%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,809 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 707 active listings in the ZIP; 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $175k implies a 272% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 4→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.3% in Sebring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.