259 Mary Kay Ln

Oildale, CA 93308

$129,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Active · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,190/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $43/mo
• Annual: $511/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.40%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($511/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (8.4% below list).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#680 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Beardsley Elementary (suburban): math 7% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #501 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Beardsley Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,564 of 1,571 statewide, top 100%, 421 students, 98% FRL); Beardsley Junior High (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #461 of 498 statewide, top 93%, 400 students, 94% FRL); North High (reading 75%, 2,214 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 76% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Oildale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.