259 Mary Kay Ln · Oildale, CA 93308

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 140 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2017 Good condition 3,500 sqft lot $104/sqft · 31% above area Est $99k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully renovated 2017-built home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,248 square feet of thoughtfully updated living space in the peaceful Riverdale Village community. A charming front patio deck welcomes you inside, where natural light and fresh interior and exterior paint create a warm, inviting atmosphere. The home features stylish wood-like flooring paired with newer carpet, stainless steel appliances, granite countertops throughout, and updated kitchen cabinetry with a convenient kitchen island, ideal for entertaining. Enjoy the comfort of a newer HVAC system and roof, along with the ease of a dedicated indoor laundry room. The bathrooms are shining with updates and elegance as well. Residents enjoy access to resort-style community amenities including a sparkling pool, fitness center, beautifully maintained parks, dog stations, and a recreation room perfect for gatherings. This move-in-ready home truly checks all of the boxes!

Key facts

• Front patio deck
• Renovated home
• Kitchen island

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• FRONT PATIO DECK
• WOOD-LIKE FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• KITCHEN ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($511/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Oildale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#680 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Beardsley Elementary (suburban): math 7% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #501 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Beardsley Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,564 of 1,571 statewide, top 100%, 421 students, 98% FRL); Beardsley Junior High (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #461 of 498 statewide, top 93%, 400 students, 94% FRL); North High (reading 75%, 2,214 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 76% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.40%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,000
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 31.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
256 Mary Kay Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	3mo	$130,000	$104	96
48 Cedarwood Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$70,000	$56	91
131 Fernwood Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,248 (0%)	15mo	$120,000	$96	79
300 Florence Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+4%)	20mo	$99,500	$77	73
4 Dogwood Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	8mo	$65,000	$56	72
282 Florence Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	16mo	$111,000	$96	72
305 Kings Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-9%)	13mo	$99,900	$88	71
316 Nita	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	7mo	$82,500	$61	70
159 Hickorywood Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	3mo	$99,000	$74	70
278 Teakwood Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	21mo	$104,900	$78	68
170 Hickorywood Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (+6%)	19mo	$95,000	$72	63
153 Hickorywood Ln	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (+10%)	15mo	$38,000	$28	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-19,248
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-16,942
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93308

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 314
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $87	+0% $43	+5% $-2	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-51	-5% $-4	+0% $43	+5% $90	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $108	-0.5pp $76	base $43	+0.5pp $9	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 Beardsley Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	5d	1	0.26mi
627 Beardsley Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	967	$1,575	$1.63	46d	1	0.29mi
706 Huskey Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	832	$1,450	$1.74	46d	1	0.32mi
213 Oildale Dr Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	928	$1,195	$1.29	5d	1	0.37mi
627 Hood Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	5d	1	0.41mi
819 Washington Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	767	$1,295	$1.69	5d	1	0.50mi
327 McCord Ave Unit 6 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	5d	1	0.53mi
448 S Oildale Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	5d	1	0.57mi
611 Wilson Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	46d	1	0.66mi
222 Moneta Ave Unit 222 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,700	$1.63	5d	1	0.67mi
419 Washington Ave Unit 417 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	975	$1,500	$1.54	5d	1	0.67mi
222 Harding Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	5d	1	0.70mi
901 Castaic Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1076	$1,700	$1.58	5d	1	0.75mi
1405 Yosemite Dr Unit 1405 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	712	$1,100	$1.54	46d	1	0.82mi
1207 El Tejon Ave Unit 1 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1212	$1,950	$1.61	5d	1	0.86mi
709 Francis St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	46d	1	0.93mi
106 E Warren Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,400	$1.20	13d	1	0.99mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	990	$1,495	$1.51	5d	1	1.11mi
3333 El Encanto Ct Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	990	$1,595	$1.61	17d	1	1.11mi
1905 McCray St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	736	$1,450	$1.97	5d	1	1.14mi
1951 Golden State Ave Bakersfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1017	$1,695	$1.67	5d	2	1.23mi
411 Highland Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1051	$1,650	$1.57	5d	1	1.27mi
615 W China Grade Loop Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,850	$2.11	5d	6	1.30mi
3817 K St Unit A Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	763	$1,285	$1.68	5d	1	1.40mi
1201 40th St Bakersfield, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,219	$1.40	5d	1	1.46mi
210 Douglas St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1274	$1,400	$1.10	5d	1	1.46mi
2600 Park Meadows Dr Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	864	$1,495	$1.73	5d	2	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $129,900 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,900 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 119 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-02-02
    listed $129,900 Active 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully renovated 2017-built home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,248 square feet of thoughtfully updated living space in the peaceful Riverdale Village community. A charming front patio deck welcomes you inside, where natural light and fresh interior and exterior paint create a warm, inviting atmosphere. The home features stylish wood-like flooring paired with newer carpet, stainless steel appliances, granite countertops throughout, and updated kitchen cabinetry with a convenient kitchen island, ideal for entertaining. Enjoy the comfort of a newer HVAC system and roof, along with the ease of a dedicated indoor laundry room. The bathrooms are shining with updates and elegance as well. Residents enjoy access to resort-style community amenities including a sparkling pool, fitness center, beautifully maintained parks, dog stations, and a recreation room perfect for gatherings. This move-in-ready home truly checks all of the boxes!

18. 2026-02-02
    listed $129,900 Active 969-char remark

    Show marketing remark (969 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully renovated 2017-built home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,248 square feet of thoughtfully updated living space in the peaceful Riverdale Village community. A charming front patio deck welcomes you inside, where natural light and fresh interior and exterior paint create a warm, inviting atmosphere. The home features stylish wood-like flooring paired with newer carpet, stainless steel appliances, granite countertops throughout, and updated kitchen cabinetry with a convenient kitchen island, ideal for entertaining. Enjoy the comfort of a newer HVAC system and roof, along with the ease of a dedicated indoor laundry room. The bathrooms are shining with updates and elegance as well. Residents enjoy access to resort-style community amenities including a sparkling pool, fitness center, beautifully maintained parks, dog stations, and a recreation room perfect for gatherings. This move-in-ready home truly checks all of the boxes!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,143
• − Management: −$1,143
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,656
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$397
• After-tax cash flow: $908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2017-built home in Riverdale Village is beautifully renovated with updated kitchen, bathrooms, and HVAC system. It offers a good condition with fresh paint and landscaping, making it move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Freshens up the bathrooms and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Freshens up the bathrooms and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beardsley Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0604260
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $28,808
• Composite: 9.63/100
• National rank: #9841
• State rank: #501 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oildale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #680
• US rank: #20848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oildale, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 55,078
• Household income: $62,445
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2931.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 825.65
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.22%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $129,900 CRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $129,900 GEMLS