3128 Prophecy Rd

Middlesex, NC 27557

$275,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,421/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-494/mo
• Annual: $-5,925/yr
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (31.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (48.3% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (48.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#551 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nash-Rocky Mount Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #155 of 178 in NC (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Spring Hope Elementary (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,218 of 1,410 statewide, top 87%, 363 students, 88% FRL); Southern Nash Middle (math 20% / reading 35%, grade F, #368 of 475 statewide, top 78%, 798 students, 69% FRL); Southern Nash High (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #409 of 535 statewide, top 77%, 1,070 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 500 units permitted in Nash County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nash County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $275k implies a 272% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in Middlesex — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.