3128 Prophecy Rd · Middlesex, NC 27557

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2001 1.13 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELLER WILL PAY 3% OF SELL PRICE TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS. OFFERED AS IS- BRING ALL OFFERS- NICE COVERED DECK- BIG ATTACHED STORAGE OR WORKSHOP.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• New front porch
• New large back deck

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• LAUNDRY ROOM WITH CHUTE
• NEW FRONT PORCH
• NEW LARGE BACK DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size: 1.13 acres; Zoned Ag

Exterior

• Parking: On-site unpaved parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One-story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Brick/mortar foundation; Metal roof; Construction details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Property has a view; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (bedroom count not separately provided)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Accessible full bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (31.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (48.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (48.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in Middlesex — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#551 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nash-Rocky Mount Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #155 of 178 in NC (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Spring Hope Elementary (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,218 of 1,410 statewide, top 87%, 363 students, 88% FRL); Southern Nash Middle (math 20% / reading 35%, grade F, #368 of 475 statewide, top 78%, 798 students, 69% FRL); Southern Nash High (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #409 of 535 statewide, top 77%, 1,070 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 500 units permitted in Nash County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Nash County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $275k implies a 272% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,111 (48.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.69%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $76,992
• Equity at exit: $203,932

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.20×
• Total profit: $246,339
• Equity at exit: $400,131

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27557

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 16.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $716/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,046

Max offer price $187,779

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-338	-5% $-416	+0% $-494	+5% $-572	+10% $-649
Rent	-10% $-606	-5% $-550	+0% $-494	+5% $-438	+10% $-381
Rate	-1.0pp $-355	-0.5pp $-424	base $-494	+0.5pp $-565	+1.0pp $-637

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $275,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $285,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $285,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $285,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-18
    status Active
19. 2026-05-06
    status Pending
20. 2026-04-22
    listed $285,000 Active
21. 2025-03-28
    soldstatus $74,000
22. 2024-11-04
    price $39,900 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    SELLER WILL PAY 3% OF SELL PRICE TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS. OFFERED AS IS- BRING ALL OFFERS- NICE COVERED DECK- BIG ATTACHED STORAGE OR WORKSHOP.

23. 2023-12-26
    historical 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    SELLER WILL PAY 3% OF SELL PRICE TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS. OFFERED AS IS- BRING ALL OFFERS- NICE COVERED DECK- BIG ATTACHED STORAGE OR WORKSHOP.

24. 2023-11-29
    listed $310,000 Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    SELLER WILL PAY 3% OF SELL PRICE TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS. OFFERED AS IS- BRING ALL OFFERS- NICE COVERED DECK- BIG ATTACHED STORAGE OR WORKSHOP.

25. 2023-11-29
    price $310,000 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    SELLER WILL PAY 3% OF SELL PRICE TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS. OFFERED AS IS- BRING ALL OFFERS- NICE COVERED DECK- BIG ATTACHED STORAGE OR WORKSHOP.

26. 2004-01-30
    soldstatus $35,200 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    SELLER WILL PAY 3% OF SELL PRICE TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS. OFFERED AS IS- BRING ALL OFFERS- NICE COVERED DECK- BIG ATTACHED STORAGE OR WORKSHOP.

27. 2004-01-30
    soldstatus $35,200 Sold 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    SELLER WILL PAY 3% OF SELL PRICE TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS. OFFERED AS IS- BRING ALL OFFERS- NICE COVERED DECK- BIG ATTACHED STORAGE OR WORKSHOP.

28. 2004-01-30
    soldstatus $35,200 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    SELLER WILL PAY 3% OF SELL PRICE TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS. OFFERED AS IS- BRING ALL OFFERS- NICE COVERED DECK- BIG ATTACHED STORAGE OR WORKSHOP.

29. 2003-09-17
    listed $39,900 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    SELLER WILL PAY 3% OF SELL PRICE TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS. OFFERED AS IS- BRING ALL OFFERS- NICE COVERED DECK- BIG ATTACHED STORAGE OR WORKSHOP.

30. 2003-09-17
    listed $39,900 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    SELLER WILL PAY 3% OF SELL PRICE TOWARDS BUYERS CLOSING COSTS. OFFERED AS IS- BRING ALL OFFERS- NICE COVERED DECK- BIG ATTACHED STORAGE OR WORKSHOP.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $716 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,539/yr (+$128/mo · 214.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$716
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$11,171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,681
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nash-Rocky Mount Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703270
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,553
• Composite: 22.04/100
• National rank: #8198
• State rank: #155 of 178 in NC

Livability — Middlesex

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #20308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,407

Population outlook (Nash County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 91,107 people
• By 2030: 89,193 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 84,959 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,517 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 72,941 · -19.9%
• By 2100: 63,602 · -30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Nash

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+0.2 2012: D+0.9 2008: R+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.73%
• Current HPI: 311.489
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+614.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $285,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-04 Price Changed $39,900 TMLS
• 2023-12-26 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2023-11-29 Listed $310,000 TMLS
• 2023-11-29 Price Changed $310,000 TMLS
• 2004-01-30 Sold (MLS) $35,200 AMLSNC
• 2004-01-30 Sold (MLS) $35,200 TMLS
• 2004-01-30 Sold (MLS) $35,200 TMLS
• 2003-09-17 Listed $39,900 AMLSNC
• 2003-09-17 Listed $39,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $716 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.