7106 W Hombre Rd

San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$899,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,410 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 474 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax + insurance: −$594
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $617/mo
• Annual: $7,399/yr
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.94%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $251,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $899k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $617 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $750k (16.6% below list).
• It's been on market 474 days — a 12% lower offer ($791k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $750k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $96k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $90k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 475 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $296k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $348k; list at $899k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$155k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 474 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.