7106 W Hombre Rd · San Tan Valley, AZ 85144

$899,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 474 Days on market

Built 2014 1.24 ac lot $373/sqft · 6% above area Est $848k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COME SEE THIS BEAUTIFUL CUSTOM HOME!! Amazing view of the SanTan Mountain. This beautiful home sits on an acre and a half with unlimited possibilities. Room to add horses or a casita/guest home or workshop. Conveniently located to many restaurants and shopping yet you are tucked away by the mountains for beautiful quiet nights

Key facts

• Acre and a half
• Custom home
• Room to add a casita

Tags

• CUSTOM HOME
• VIEW OF THE SANTAN MOUNTAIN
• ACRE AND A HALF
• ROOM TO ADD HORSES
• ROOM TO ADD A CASITA
• ROOM TO ADD A WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $899k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $617 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $750k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $750k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 475 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $96k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $90k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$155k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 474 days — a 12% lower offer ($791k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $296k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $348k; list at $899k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $750,000 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 474 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.94%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $847,713
• List price: $899,000
• Delta: 6.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7005 W Meadowbrook Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	2,411 (0%)	16mo	$1,075,000	$446	84
6767 W Marron Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	2,388 (-1%)	22mo	$1,100,000	$461	68
35219 N Ellsworth Ave	0.52mi	3/3.0	2,364 (-2%)	2mo	$879,999	$372	66
7631 W Dove Roost Rd	0.34mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,168 (-10%)	4mo	$935,000	$431	51
26220 S 202nd Way	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,313 (-4%)	6mo	$775,000	$335	50
20218 E Palm Beach Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,350 (-2%)	17mo	$859,000	$366	50
—	0.63mi	3/2.5	2,562 (+6%)	18mo	$265,000	$103	43
20323 E Happy Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,080 (-14%)	12mo	$560,000	$269	40
26045 S 204th St	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,720 (+13%)	1mo	$590,000	$217	38
26621 S 203rd St	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,700 (+12%)	21mo	$975,000	$361	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $528,447
• Equity at exit: $809,890

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $1,524,427
• Equity at exit: $1,746,559

Cash invested: $251,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85144

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 475
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,633/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,575
• Net cashflow: $617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,720

Max offer price $899,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,125	-5% $871	+0% $617	+5% $362	+10% $108
Rent	-10% $24	-5% $320	+0% $617	+5% $913	+10% $1,209
Rate	-1.0pp $1,069	-0.5pp $845	base $617	+0.5pp $384	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $224,750
• Closing costs: $26,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20319 E Orchard Ln Queen Creek, AZ	4.0	2.5	2474	$7,500	$3.03	44d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $899,000 Active 474 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $899,000 Active 473 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $899,000 Active 472 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $899,000 Active 471 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $899,000 Active 469 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $899,000 Active 468 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $899,000 Active 465 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $899,000 Active 464 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $899,000 Active 463 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $899,000 Active 460 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $899,000 Active 459 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $899,000 Active 458 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $899,000 Active 457 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $899,000 Active 456 DOM
15. 2025-07-03
    price $899,000 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    COME SEE THIS BEAUTIFUL CUSTOM HOME!! Amazing view of the SanTan Mountain. This beautiful home sits on an acre and a half with unlimited possibilities. Room to add horses or a casita/guest home or workshop. Conveniently located to many restaurants and shopping yet you are tucked away by the mountains for beautiful quiet nights

16. 2025-06-11
    price $949,000 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    COME SEE THIS BEAUTIFUL CUSTOM HOME!! Amazing view of the SanTan Mountain. This beautiful home sits on an acre and a half with unlimited possibilities. Room to add horses or a casita/guest home or workshop. Conveniently located to many restaurants and shopping yet you are tucked away by the mountains for beautiful quiet nights

17. 2025-05-06
    price $1,050,000 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    COME SEE THIS BEAUTIFUL CUSTOM HOME!! Amazing view of the SanTan Mountain. This beautiful home sits on an acre and a half with unlimited possibilities. Room to add horses or a casita/guest home or workshop. Conveniently located to many restaurants and shopping yet you are tucked away by the mountains for beautiful quiet nights

18. 2025-05-01
    price $1,100,000 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    COME SEE THIS BEAUTIFUL CUSTOM HOME!! Amazing view of the SanTan Mountain. This beautiful home sits on an acre and a half with unlimited possibilities. Room to add horses or a casita/guest home or workshop. Conveniently located to many restaurants and shopping yet you are tucked away by the mountains for beautiful quiet nights

19. 2025-02-27
    listed $1,195,000 Active 329-char remark

    Show marketing remark (329 chars)

    COME SEE THIS BEAUTIFUL CUSTOM HOME!! Amazing view of the SanTan Mountain. This beautiful home sits on an acre and a half with unlimited possibilities. Room to add horses or a casita/guest home or workshop. Conveniently located to many restaurants and shopping yet you are tucked away by the mountains for beautiful quiet nights

20. 2015-04-15
    soldstatus $348,000 Closed 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    WOW!!! New Home just built, beautiful 2473 sq/ft 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 3 car garage home sitting on a 1.25 acre HORSE property. Home featurse 10 ft high ceilings, 20 inch tile and carpet throughout. Gourmet kitchen with a electric cook top, wall oven and microwave, kitchen island, granite counter tops, and TONS of cabinet space. All Stainless Steel appliances to be included except for a fridge. Master suite fit for a King! Master bathroom, with feature dual sinks and separate shower and tub. R28 insulation in the walls, and R38 insulation in the attic. 14 seer AC with 4 zone controlled thermostats. Lovely kitchen, bath, and light fixtures through out the home. Built at the base of the San Tan Mountains. This will be your own private paradise with NO HOA!!!

21. 2015-04-15
    soldstatus $348,000

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    WOW!!! New Home just built, beautiful 2473 sq/ft 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 3 car garage home sitting on a 1.25 acre HORSE property. Home featurse 10 ft high ceilings, 20 inch tile and carpet throughout. Gourmet kitchen with a electric cook top, wall oven and microwave, kitchen island, granite counter tops, and TONS of cabinet space. All Stainless Steel appliances to be included except for a fridge. Master suite fit for a King! Master bathroom, with feature dual sinks and separate shower and tub. R28 insulation in the walls, and R38 insulation in the attic. 14 seer AC with 4 zone controlled thermostats. Lovely kitchen, bath, and light fixtures through out the home. Built at the base of the San Tan Mountains. This will be your own private paradise with NO HOA!!!

22. 2015-04-08
    status Pending 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    WOW!!! New Home just built, beautiful 2473 sq/ft 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 3 car garage home sitting on a 1.25 acre HORSE property. Home featurse 10 ft high ceilings, 20 inch tile and carpet throughout. Gourmet kitchen with a electric cook top, wall oven and microwave, kitchen island, granite counter tops, and TONS of cabinet space. All Stainless Steel appliances to be included except for a fridge. Master suite fit for a King! Master bathroom, with feature dual sinks and separate shower and tub. R28 insulation in the walls, and R38 insulation in the attic. 14 seer AC with 4 zone controlled thermostats. Lovely kitchen, bath, and light fixtures through out the home. Built at the base of the San Tan Mountains. This will be your own private paradise with NO HOA!!!

23. 2015-03-01
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    WOW!!! New Home just built, beautiful 2473 sq/ft 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 3 car garage home sitting on a 1.25 acre HORSE property. Home featurse 10 ft high ceilings, 20 inch tile and carpet throughout. Gourmet kitchen with a electric cook top, wall oven and microwave, kitchen island, granite counter tops, and TONS of cabinet space. All Stainless Steel appliances to be included except for a fridge. Master suite fit for a King! Master bathroom, with feature dual sinks and separate shower and tub. R28 insulation in the walls, and R38 insulation in the attic. 14 seer AC with 4 zone controlled thermostats. Lovely kitchen, bath, and light fixtures through out the home. Built at the base of the San Tan Mountains. This will be your own private paradise with NO HOA!!!

24. 2015-02-24
    listed $350,000 Active 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    WOW!!! New Home just built, beautiful 2473 sq/ft 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 3 car garage home sitting on a 1.25 acre HORSE property. Home featurse 10 ft high ceilings, 20 inch tile and carpet throughout. Gourmet kitchen with a electric cook top, wall oven and microwave, kitchen island, granite counter tops, and TONS of cabinet space. All Stainless Steel appliances to be included except for a fridge. Master suite fit for a King! Master bathroom, with feature dual sinks and separate shower and tub. R28 insulation in the walls, and R38 insulation in the attic. 14 seer AC with 4 zone controlled thermostats. Lovely kitchen, bath, and light fixtures through out the home. Built at the base of the San Tan Mountains. This will be your own private paradise with NO HOA!!!

25. 2014-12-04
    historical
26. 2014-09-05
    listed $392,500 Active
27. 2014-09-03
    historical
28. 2014-06-30
    listed $392,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,633 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,933 · $494/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,301/yr (+$275/mo · 125.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,358
• − Property taxes: −$2,633
• − Insurance: −$4,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,200
• − Management: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$26,153
• Taxable loss: −$8,038
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,929
• After-tax cash flow: $9,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.94%
• Current HPI: 372.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+129.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $899,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $949,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $1,050,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $1,100,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-27 Listed $1,195,000 ARMLS
• 2015-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $348,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-15 Sold (MLS) $348,000 ARMLS
• 2015-04-08 Pending — ARMLS
• 2015-03-01 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2015-02-24 Listed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2014-12-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-09-05 Listed $392,500 ARMLS
• 2014-09-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-06-30 Listed $392,500 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,633 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.