4911 Goode Rd

Bedford, VA 24556

$429,900D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax + insurance: −$284
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-725/mo
• Annual: $-8,705/yr
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.23%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $120,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-725 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (29.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (46.6% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $230k (46.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#137 in VA, #4,371 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Otter River Elementary (math 64% / reading 74%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 198 students, 39% FRL); Forest Middle (math 71% / reading 85%, grade A+, #34 of 342 statewide, top 10%, 870 students, 22% FRL); Jefferson Forest High (math 59% / reading 81%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 1,309 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Bedford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.