4911 Goode Rd · Bedford, VA 24556

$429,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2004 1.75 ac lot Est $590k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your peaceful country retreat with stunning mountain views! This charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort and outdoor living. Inside, you'll find a spacious great room with a vaulted ceiling and a cozy gas fireplace, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Step outside and enjoy the covered front porch or unwind on the back deck overlooking almost 2 acres. The property features new fencing, raised garden beds, fruit trees, and a custom-built chicken coop with chickens included if you would like to keep them! Additional highlights include a full unfinished basement offering endless possibilities for expansion or storage, plus a convenient 2-car garage. If

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• New fencing
• Raised garden beds

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• NEW FENCING
• RAISED GARDEN BEDS
• FRUIT TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-725 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (29.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (46.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (46.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Bedford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#137 in VA, #4,371 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Bedford County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #41 of 131 in VA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Otter River Elementary (math 64% / reading 74%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 198 students, 39% FRL); Forest Middle (math 71% / reading 85%, grade A+, #34 of 342 statewide, top 10%, 870 students, 22% FRL); Jefferson Forest High (math 59% / reading 81%, grade B+, #151 of 319 statewide, top 49%, 1,309 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 294 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,500 (46.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.23%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $589,680
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4911 Goode Rd	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,132 (-1%)	1mo	$435,000	$204	95
2 Wingfield Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,090 (-3%)	22mo	$569,900	$273	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $187,700
• Equity at exit: $387,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.89×
• Total profit: $588,620
• Equity at exit: $835,201

Cash invested: $120,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24556

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,259/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-725

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,213

Max offer price $301,747

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,475
• Closing costs: $12,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4946 Goode Rd Goode, VA	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,295	$1.31	13d	1	0.09mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $429,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,259 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,525 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,266/yr (+$189/mo · 180.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,259
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − Depreciation: −$12,506
• Taxable loss: −$16,862
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,047
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100360
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $56,288
• Composite: 54.92/100
• National rank: #1310
• State rank: #41 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bedford

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #4371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,447
• Population (ZIP): 2,695

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,194 people
• By 2030: 85,499 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 88,834 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 90,060 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 94,131 · +13.1%
• By 2100: 89,832 · +8.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Asian 3% Native American 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.4) · D 24.4% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -50.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.28%
• Current HPI: 326.0488
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $429,900 LMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,259 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.