7821 Covington Pkwy

Amarillo, TX 79121

$624,900D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,505 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,595/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,277
• Tax + insurance: −$1,113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,175
• Net cashflow: $30/mo
• Annual: $356/yr
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.20%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $174,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($356/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $560k (10.5% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($587k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $560k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Amarillo ISD (urban): math 44% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #336 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.