7821 Covington Pkwy · Amarillo, TX 79121

$624,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,505 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1994 9,148 sqft lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New paint in most of this stunning Sleepy Hollow Home! 4 Bedrooms plus an office that could be a 5th bedroom. Three living areas, formal dining and spacious kitchen along with the beautiful pool make this a lovely home for entertaining! The versatile utility and kitchen have storage galore! New Class IV roof for insurance savings. The meticulous maintenance and love afforded to this quality built home will make it perfect for the next buyer!

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($356/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $560k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $560k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Amarillo ISD (urban): math 44% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #336 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($587k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $559,500 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.20%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-99,241
• Equity at exit: $93,175

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-83,460
• Equity at exit: $54,030

Cash invested: $174,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79121

• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,277
• Tax from tax record: −$853 /mo · $10,235/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,175
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,557

Max offer price $624,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,225
• Closing costs: $18,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7501 Continental Pkwy Amarillo, TX	5.0	3.0	3418	$5,595	$1.64	21d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $624,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $624,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $624,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $624,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $624,900 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $624,900 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $624,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $624,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $624,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $624,900 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $624,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $624,900 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $624,900 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $624,900 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $624,900 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $649,900 Active 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    New paint in most of this stunning Sleepy Hollow Home! 4 Bedrooms plus an office that could be a 5th bedroom. Three living areas, formal dining and spacious kitchen along with the beautiful pool make this a lovely home for entertaining! The versatile utility and kitchen have storage galore! New Class IV roof for insurance savings. The meticulous maintenance and love afforded to this quality built home will make it perfect for the next buyer!

17. 2025-07-09
    price $674,900
18. 2011-08-31
    soldstatus
19. 1997-12-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,235 · $853/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,436 · $953/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,200/yr (+$100/mo · 11.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,004
• − Property taxes: −$10,235
• − Insurance: −$3,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,371
• − Management: −$5,371
• − Depreciation: −$18,179
• Taxable loss: −$10,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,435
• After-tax cash flow: $2,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amarillo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808130
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,478
• Composite: 35.96/100
• National rank: #4798
• State rank: #336 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amarillo, TX
• City population: 185,802
• Population (ZIP): 5,879

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Vietnam, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.82%
• Current HPI: 167.7934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $649,900 AARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $674,900 AARMLS
• 2011-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-12-10 Sold (MLS) — AARMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,235 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.