9 Lilly Ave

Phoenicia, NY 12464

$325,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 628 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,641/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-736/mo
• Annual: $-8,833/yr
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.71%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-736 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (40.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (49.5% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (49.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#300 in NY, #4,845 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: crime D+, commute D+, amenities D.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $325k implies a 306% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.