9 Lilly Ave · Phoenicia, NY 12464

$325,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 628 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1950 0.43 ac lot $518/sqft · 21% below area Est $410k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sweet cottage and . 43 acres. There are two separate deeds, .22 acres and the second deed is . 21 acre---house and both properties being sold together for listed price. This location is convenient as an instant get-away cottage or starter home. Good kitchen appliances, almost all windows have been replaced w/ new ones, bathroom has new combination washer/dryer unit and the Jotul gas "woodstove" insert in the living room fireplace may be sufficient to heat entire house. New Baseboard heaters installed 2014.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Move-in-ready
• High-speed internet

Tags

• WATERFRONT COTTAGE
• PRIVATE COUNTRY LANE
• CATSKILLS VIEWS
• MOVE-IN-READY
• HIGH-SPEED INTERNET
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private well water; 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers; Propane available; Cable available and connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Residential property; Facing view (has view)
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Block foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Built as a single-story structure
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard and front yard; Landscaped grounds; Level and sloped areas; Meadow; Fire pit; Garden; Deck; Storage; Shed(s); Waterfront on Esopus; Private maintained road / private road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Fireplace insert (gas/propane); Propane heating
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Entrance foyer; Open floorplan; Insulated windows; Blinds; Display windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-736 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (40.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (49.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (49.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#300 in NY, #4,845 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: crime D+, commute D+, amenities D.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $325k implies a 306% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,147 (49.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.71%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 16.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $410,201
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -20.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-14,570
• Equity at exit: $138,972

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $22,247
• Equity at exit: $208,763

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12464

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 16.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,317/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-736

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,573

Max offer price $194,965

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $325,000 Pending 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $325,000 Active Under Contract 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $325,000 Active Under Contract 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $325,000 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $325,000 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $325,000 Active Under Contract 31 DOM
10. 2026-05-07
    historical Active Under Contract 1989-char remark
11. 2026-04-29
    listed $325,000 Active 1989-char remark
12. 2014-12-23
    soldstatus $80,000 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Sweet cottage and . 43 acres. There are two separate deeds, .22 acres and the second deed is . 21 acre---house and both properties being sold together for listed price. This location is convenient as an instant get-away cottage or starter home. Good kitchen appliances, almost all windows have been replaced w/ new ones, bathroom has new combination washer/dryer unit and the Jotul gas "woodstove" insert in the living room fireplace may be sufficient to heat entire house. New Baseboard heaters installed 2014.

13. 2014-12-23
    soldstatus $80,000

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Sweet cottage and . 43 acres. There are two separate deeds, .22 acres and the second deed is . 21 acre---house and both properties being sold together for listed price. This location is convenient as an instant get-away cottage or starter home. Good kitchen appliances, almost all windows have been replaced w/ new ones, bathroom has new combination washer/dryer unit and the Jotul gas "woodstove" insert in the living room fireplace may be sufficient to heat entire house. New Baseboard heaters installed 2014.

14. 2014-01-02
    listed $95,000 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Sweet cottage and . 43 acres. There are two separate deeds, .22 acres and the second deed is . 21 acre---house and both properties being sold together for listed price. This location is convenient as an instant get-away cottage or starter home. Good kitchen appliances, almost all windows have been replaced w/ new ones, bathroom has new combination washer/dryer unit and the Jotul gas "woodstove" insert in the living room fireplace may be sufficient to heat entire house. New Baseboard heaters installed 2014.

15. 2013-06-30
    listed $95,000
16. 2012-06-29
    listed $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,317 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,905 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,588/yr (+$132/mo · 68.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,317
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,576
• − Management: −$1,576
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$15,056
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,613
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onteora Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621840
• Math proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $56,997
• Composite: 52.17/100
• National rank: #3482
• State rank: #288 of 755 in NY

Livability — Phoenicia

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #300
• US rank: #4845

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living D Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,071

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 457.9678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+195.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $325,000 HVCRMLS
• 2014-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2014-12-23 Sold (MLS) $80,000 HVCRMLS
• 2014-01-02 Listed $95,000 HVCRMLS
• 2013-06-30 Listed $95,000 HVCRMLS
• 2012-06-29 Listed $110,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,317 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.