1816 Dublin St

Hopewell, VA 23860

$199,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,003 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,515/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-37/mo
• Annual: $-442/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-442/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (23.9% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#224 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hopewell City Public School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #129 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dupont Elementary (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,108 statewide, top 94%, 632 students, 104% FRL); Carter G. Woodson Middle (math 22% / reading 51%, grade F, #320 of 342 statewide, top 95%, 826 students, 102% FRL); Hopewell High (math 37% / reading 72%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,136 students, 102% FRL) — zoned schools average 103% FRL vs 68% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42 units permitted in Hopewell city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hopewell County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $199k implies a 331% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Hopewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.