1816 Dublin St · Hopewell, VA 23860

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,003 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1970 5,000 sqft lot $198/sqft · 6% below area Est $211k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-In Ready and Full of Charm! Step inside this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that perfectly blends comfort and style. You’ll love the warmth of the refinished hardwood floors and the bright, updated kitchen designed for everyday living. The home features a brand-new roof, newer HVAC system, and energy-efficient vinyl windows, giving you peace of mind for years to come. Enjoy meals in the separate dining area and the convenience of a dedicated laundry room. This home checks all the boxes — move-in ready, well cared for, and full of character!

Key facts

• Brand-new roof
• Updated kitchen
• Newer hvac system

Tags

• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT VINYL WINDOWS
• SEPARATE DINING AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Built with aluminum siding, block, frame and drywall; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer; Zoned R3

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Bedroom located on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub & shower (first level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Heat pump
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; Dining area; Laminate counters; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-442/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Hopewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#224 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hopewell City Public School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #129 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dupont Elementary (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,108 statewide, top 94%, 632 students, 104% FRL); Carter G. Woodson Middle (math 22% / reading 51%, grade F, #320 of 342 statewide, top 95%, 826 students, 102% FRL); Hopewell High (math 37% / reading 72%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,136 students, 102% FRL) — zoned schools average 103% FRL vs 68% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42 units permitted in Hopewell city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hopewell County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $199k implies a 331% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,488 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,428
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -5.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1802 Freeman St	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,008 (+0%)	4mo	$220,000	$218	87
2005 Dublin St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+4%)	5mo	$235,000	$226	81
1125 Salem Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,091 (+9%)	5mo	$215,000	$197	69
1602 Tabb Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	968 (-4%)	1mo	$220,000	$227	66
1201 Stewart Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	972 (-3%)	2mo	$227,000	$234	64
2405 Freeman St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,093 (+9%)	8mo	$100,000	$91	61
1707 Arlington Rd	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+5%)	7mo	$120,000	$114	60
1105 Arlington Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+8%)	4mo	$219,950	$204	60
1701 Arlington Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+10%)	2mo	$270,000	$245	52
1110 Pine Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,104 (+10%)	10mo	$177,500	$161	48
2708 Granby St	0.70mi	3/1.0	912 (-9%)	9mo	$132,500	$145	44
2102 Hazelwood Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,098 (+10%)	9mo	$221,000	$201	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-26,649
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $9,954
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23860

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,285/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,561

Max offer price $192,500

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $20	+0% $-37	+5% $-93	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $-97	+0% $-37	+5% $23	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $14	base $-37	+0.5pp $-88	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2303 Maclin Cir Hopewell, VA	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,499	$1.30	5d	1	0.32mi
600 Winston Churchill Dr Hopewell, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,075	$1.19	3d	1	0.37mi
460 Highland Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1212	$1,700	$1.40	21d	1	0.58mi
800 Chestnut St Hopewell, VA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,395	$1.58	45d	1	0.59mi
1206 Tabb Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	974	$1,470	$1.51	45d	1	0.63mi
2305 Poplar St Unit B Hopewell, VA	2.0	1.5	959	$1,050	$1.09	25d	1	0.63mi
1900 Arlington Rd Hopewell, VA	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,695	$1.39	45d	1	0.71mi
1004 Sunnyside Ave Hopewell, VA	4.0	2.0	875	$1,737	$1.99	6d	1	0.81mi
522 S 22nd Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	0.86mi
305 S 9th Ave Hopewell, VA	4.0	1.0	1056	$1,599	$1.51	5d	1	0.87mi
552 S 22nd Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	0.89mi
507 Hill Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	932	$1,395	$1.50	25d	1	0.96mi
101 S Main St Unit 1 Hopewell, VA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	6d	1	1.10mi
1201 W City Point Rd Hopewell, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	710	$1,250	$1.76	16d	3	1.17mi
1201 W City Point Rd Hopewell, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	711	$1,250	$1.76	3d	7	1.17mi
3309 Carlisle Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,395	$1.21	23d	1	1.23mi
3314 Granby St Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1469	$1,600	$1.09	25d	1	1.24mi
2009 Day St Hopewell, VA	2.0	1.0	780	$895	$1.15	25d	1	1.26mi
3200 Saint Charles St Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.5	1272	$1,595	$1.25	45d	1	1.30mi
1208 W Broadway Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	18d	1	1.30mi
404 N 4th Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,495	$1.32	45d	1	1.34mi
311 E Cawson St Hopewell, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0	978	$2,154	$2.20	3d	9	1.41mi
221 S Mesa Dr Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,300	$1.13	25d	1	1.45mi
508 N 7th Ave Hopewell, VA	4.0	1.0	1183	$1,599	$1.35	3d	1	1.45mi
3500 Oaklawn Blvd Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	19d	1	1.46mi
3502 Oaklawn Blvd Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1124	$1,850	$1.65	23d	1	1.47mi
3568 Perrins Hill Way Prince George, VA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,200	$1.47	3d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   price $199,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $215,000 Active 576-char remark
16. 2025-12-15
    status Active
17. 2025-12-01
    listed $215,000 Active
18. 2025-11-04
    historical
19. 2009-09-22
    historical
20. 2007-12-29
    historical
21. 2007-11-12
    historical
22. 2007-11-09
    historical
23. 2007-11-08
    listed $109,950
24. 2007-11-08
    listed $109,950
25. 2007-06-26
    listed $109,950
26. 2007-06-26
    listed $109,950
27. 2007-03-15
    soldstatus $46,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,285 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$347/yr (+$29/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 42% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,285
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,454
• − Management: −$1,454
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,946
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$947
• After-tax cash flow: $505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopewell City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101980
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -54.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $38,234
• Composite: 29.95/100
• National rank: #6377
• State rank: #129 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hopewell

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #7437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hopewell, VA
• County: Hopewell City · 31,404 people
• City population: 31,404
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 31,404
• Household income: $62,141
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1055.0

Population outlook (Hopewell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,776 people
• By 2030: 21,457 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 20,882 · -4.1%
• By 2050: 20,239 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 18,905 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 16,949 · -22.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 42% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopewell

• 2024 margin: D (+13.8) · D 56.4% · R 42.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.8pp toward D · 2008: 11.9pp · 2024: 13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.8 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+9.3 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+11.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.28%
• Current HPI: 302.6343
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.86%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+365.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $215,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $215,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-11-04 Coming Soon — CVRMLS
• 2009-09-22 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-12-29 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-11-12 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-11-09 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2007-11-08 Listed $109,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-11-08 Listed $109,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-06-26 Listed $109,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-06-26 Listed $109,950 CVRMLS
• 2007-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $46,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,285 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.